Orlando, Denver Ripe for Playoff Failure

The Orlando Magic, at 58-22, is locked in as the Eastern Conference three seed. But something not-so funny has happened on the way to the Magic being a team that is a contender for the East crown.Orlando’s weaknesses have been exposed. And the deficiencies are glaring.

Since April Fool’s Day the Magic, with a weakened Kevin Garnett-less Boston and the number two seed squarely within their reach are 3-4. They absorbed abhorrent losses at home to Toronto on April1 and when they needed a win most, on April 10 to New York (in between they lost at Houston on April 7).

Each team that defeated Orlando used lateral speed off the dribble to penetrate the Magic defense. With no big man to compliment Dwight Howard opposing teams were able to score easily on layins, dunks, and free throws.

The Knicks loss was particularly galling as not only did Wilson Chandler, Quentin Richardson, Nate Robinson, and Al Harrington blow by slower Orlando defenders, the Magic were lackadaisical on both ends of the floor.  Sure the Magic attempt many three pointers but coming down and jacking up a three after one pass could not have been in Stan Van Gundy’s game plans. In fact the Magic head coach was often caught on camera head in hands, exasperated at his team’s poor effort.

The Magic will play either Philadelphia or Chicago in the first round of the playoffs. Derrick Rose of the Bulls can beat anyone off the dribble so he will be a matchup nightmare for Rafer Alston. And if the Magic do not commit to rotating the Bulls have enough outside shooters to beat Orlando. Philadelphia’s Andre Miller is as crafty a point guard as there is in the league and Andre Iguodala is quicker and more experience than Courtney Lee. Unless Mickael Pietrus gets more playing time than he has recently, Orlando will be outmatched by Philly.

Orlando is ripe to go down in the first round. If either the Bulls or Sixers defeat the Magic it should be no surprise.

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If Denver defeats Sacramento at home Monday the Western Conference number three seed will be either Houston or San Antonio. The Spurs must play at Golden State the night after Sunday night’s game at Sacramento, and then play New Orleans at home Wednesday. Age is catching up with the Spurs and even Gregg Popovich admits the second of back-to-back games are difficult tasks for his team, so the game against the Warriors is no gimme. Houston on the other hand plays the Hornets Monday night and finishes its season at Dallas.

Since this is a race that might not be decided until after the games Wednesday night, if the teams win out, the Spurs hold the tie-breaker edge) let’s look at the probable number two seed Denver Nuggets.

On Thursday Denver traveled to Los Angeles to play the Lakers. The game marked the return of center Andrew Bynum to the LA lineup. And Bynum’s return spelled doom for the Nuggets, George Karl used the combination of 6’10″ Nene Hilario and 6’11″ Chris “Birdman” Anderson to guard Bynum. The Lakers center toyed with the pair, scoring 16 points and pulling down seven rebounds in only 21 minutes on playing time. This and the fact that Denver has no one to stop Kobe Bryant, who scored 33 points on 11-19 shooting in 34 minutes in the game, are the main reasons the Nuggets cannot win the Western Conference.

With that said, can the Nuggets even reach the conference finals? If they play the Spurs they must deal with Tim Duncan, who Popovich swears will be ready for the first round of the playoffs. Though Duncan is not the shot blocker than is Bynum, he can score in so many ways that Nene and Birdman will find themselves just as overmatched as they did against Bynum. If the Nuggets play the Rockets, the Denver pair must look forward to just as much a challenge as they would meet Yao Ming.

Tony Parker of the Spurs will win the key point guard matchup against Chauncey Billups due to Parker’s quickness advantage over Billups. But conversely, because Manu Ginobili is out for the season, Carmelo Anthony will score against anyone the Spurs throw at him, including the aged Bruce Bowen. If the Nuggets play the Rockets Ron Artest draws the defensive chores against Anthony, which will be no picnic for the Nuggets small forward.

Another glaring weakness that teams like Houston and San Antonio can exploit is the Nuggets’ inability to play consistent defense (Denver allows 100.9 ppg). With the addition of Billups they are better defensively but as the Lakers game – a 116-102 Lakers win – showed, they cannot stop teams when needed.

The LA game was supposed to be played at playoff intensity and the Lakers were never threatened against Denver. Pau Gasol who had a career high with 19 rebounds against Denver, Bynum, Bryant, and Lamar Odom, were unstoppable. Denver simply had no answer for these four players. And if  the perimeter, with Dahntay Jones and J.R. Smith partnering with Billups, slightly favors Denver in any playoff matchup, Karl does not have enough of an advantage against Houston or San Antonio to make up for their interior problems.

If Denver can, somehow lure a team to play its style during the playoffs they have a chance to advance, but like Orlando in the East, they are a high seed with enough deficiencies to be upset by a lower seed in the first round.