NBA Playoffs: A Look at the 16 Teams, Two at a Time
April 10, 2009 by dwil
Now that the NCAA has extracted its pound of flesh from us all it’s time to turn our attention fully to the NBA and the April 19 beginning playoffs. Though I was watching plenty college hoops I always had an eye on the “Lig.” So I’m going to spew out some observations and let the spittle fall where it may…. Just kidding. I’ll take two teams a day and give my observations of them as they are now and tell what I think of their playoff hopes.
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Detroit looked dead while Allen Iverson sucked up time and shots from the other Detroit Pistons backcourt players. Problem is, not that AI has been banished from Auburn Hills the Pistons look a little thin at guard. Aaron Afflalo averages 16.3 minutes per game and constitutes the future, not the now, of Dee-troit Bas-ket-ball. Wil Bynum has been a pleasant surprise and head coach Michael Curry will need him to play more than his present 13.6 minutes per game in the playoffs.
That leaves the Pistons with Rodney Stuckey at the point and the no venerable Richard Hamilton. The pair are tall, Stuckey is powerful, while Hamilton is long. They combine to make a formidable backcourt pair. But in the playoffs they will get worn down if Bynum and Afflalo cannot step up and keep the opposition’s reserves at bay.
The Pistons front line fares better than does their backcourt. But. Everything under and around the rim revolves around the Mercurial One, Rasheed Wallace. If ‘Sheed is on, Antonio McDyess and Jason Maxiell get off. If ‘Sheed is engaged on defense the team is able to push tempo and create some easy basket attempts.
Right now Detroit is 38-40 and almost assured of securing the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Chicago is one position ahead of the Pistons at 39-40 after beating Philadelphia handily Thursday night. The Pistons play New Jersey at home Friday, then travel to Indiana Saturday, come back home to meet the Bulls Monday and finish on the road against Miami Wednesday.
New Jersey should be an easy win. The Bulls play poorly on the road (12-28) and if Detroit treats the matchup as a playoff game they should defeat Chicago. Indiana is +8 at home at 23-15 and though they are out of playoff contention, they do present a difficult challenge. Miami is in need of avoiding a first round playoff mathup against three-seeded Orlando, so they will be playing hard until the end of the season, unless #6 Philadelphia loses its next three games.
All that means is Detroit is in for a meeting with the #1 seed in the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The series might not be painless, but at least it will be quick. Detroit will be lucky to steal a game from the Cavs.
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Dallas resides in the number eight position in the West and unless Utah folds down the stretch that is where they will remain. And all they get for a what could be a 50-win season (the Mavs are 47-31 at present) is a meeting with the Los Angeles Lakers.
As they were under Avery Johnson and Don Nelson before Avery, the Mavs are one of the league’s best scoring teams, averaging 102.1 points per game. Unfortunately for Rick Carlisle Dallas looks much the same defensively as they did under Nelson and Johnson; the Mavs surrendering 100.1 ppg.
As he has now for years, Dirk Nowitzki leads Dallas in scoring, averaging 25.7 ppg. This season, though, Dirk has been special. He leads the Mavs in rebounding with 8.3 rpg., and shoots an even 36% from beyond the arc. His defense has also improved tremendously.
All the talk about the Most Valuable Player award this season revolves around LeBron James with Kobe Bryant a distant second. However, the player having the best season beyond James, is Nowitzki. And in most other seasons, Dirk would be a serious MVP candidate. Aside from his statistics what makes Dirk inextricably valuable to Dallas this season is his leadership.
Carlisle hoped that Nowitzki would become more of a team leader this season and Dirk has responded in kind. He is much more vocal on the court adn his teammates seem to thoroughly enjoy playing with the 7′ basketball anomaly. Nowitzki plays power forward, small forward, and point forward for the Mavs and without him they would most certainly be no more than a 30-win team in the Western Conference.
Beyond Dirk the two players who aid the German’s cause most are Jason Terry and Josh Howard. Though Terry is listed as a sixth man and is almost a shoe-in for the award, he plays more minutes, 33.6 than does Howard (31.9) and nearly as many as starting point guard Jason Kidd (35.5). Terry is Dallas’ second-leading scorer at at 19.6 ppg (36.7% beyond the arc) and is second on the team in assists with 3.6 apg.
Howard is having yet another solid season as Dirk’s running mate. As versatile as Nowitzki, Howard (18 ppg, 4 rpg) too causes matchup nightmares for the opposition. And outside of Nowitzki, Howard is the most feared all-around player on the Mavericks roster. He is a stellar on-ball defender who plays the passing lanes as well as he does his man.
Of course the playmaker on the Mavericks is the number three all-time assist man, Jason Kidd. Though Kidd is averaging less than 10 points a game for the first time in his career (9.1 ppg) he is averaging 8.6 assists per game and is perform his duties as a top NBA point guard with his usual aplomb. Kidd does the dirty work of geting all the Mavs in the right places.
The rest of the Mavs are just bit players and that is the problem with the team. The bench, even with Terry, is not potent enough, because he is forced to spend too much time with the starters. Defensively, Dallas can still be woeful and they have no inside scoring presence.
Those deficiencies make for a difficult playoffs for Mavs owner Mark Cuban.
The question for Dallas is, what happens if they finish where they are now – eighth – in the West?
They get rolled by the Los Angeles Lakers, that’s what happens.
(Next up will be a look at the two teams that are presently the number seeds in each conference.)
Man, that shot at my dawg hurt.
Big Man-
I suppose you mean AI….. I’m sorry, seriously. Since the least discussion in the comments here, I started thinking about AI. I remember like it was yesterday thinking about how AI would learn to share the ball more and not try to do everything himself and pass the ball at the end of games or ion clutch situations when he was not on his game —— and that was just after his final NCAA Tourney game at Georgetown.
I had the same thought watching Kemba Walker blow up UConn’s chances at a late-game comeback; that is thinking about how much it reminded me of AI as a Hoya.
Then I thought, wait, this cat’s entire career teams have been built around him without him ever being asked to sacrifice shots to make his teammates better, a la Kobe. And the argument that he has never had peeps around him only flies to a point. Those cats on the Philly teams were in the NBA, too. AI was the main reason they got to the Finals, but there were other cats who could shoot an open J.
Cat is now, what, 32? He needs to learn to share the ball, facilitate the offense a little more, and teach younger players how to see the game better. Cause if he doesn’t he will not end his career gracefully – and I do not want to see that happen to him.
I hoped AI would work in Detroit… you see his points per game totals and you think that he could run up 25 ppg.
Sadly it didn’t… the way Detroit has played recently without him though, especially with the recent play of Will Bynum who is playing more than 13.6 minutes per game (his early season totals bring his average minutes way down).
the thing that killed AI is that his game has never evolved. He has never improved any aspect of his game… not his defense, not his mid-range, not his 3 point shooting, not his free throw shooting not anything… I wish good luck to him next year but, I can’t see him wanting to come off the bench for a contender with the way he acted in the media at the end of his run…
Nice article Dwil.
As for AI he is what he is at this point in his career……I except players for what they are.
I don’t expect AI to some how turn into a player that isn’t ball dominate. Just like I don’t expect Dirk at 30 to all of a sudden learn post moves and learn how to dribble. Nor do I expect Nash to all of a sudden play defense and be able to finish at the rim late in games.
Also Coach Curry needs to take some of the blame. AI thrives in a uptempo game. At the begining of the season AI had alot of success with the second unit. The Pistons would sub the starters out except AI and have him run with the young kids Affalo and the rest. This is his game……….remember he actually played well in Denver those games that Antony missed with the same concept. Karl used the same strategy in which AI was the play maker and the team ran.
The thing is stat wise he will get his assist but he usually gets them in a uptempo game.
Just like Nash….AI is less effective in a half court game.
As for the Mavericks…..brotha D I have to disagree. Under my boy Avery the maves were a very good defensive team.
Here is a break down of Avery’s 3 full seasons as coach.
In the 07-08 season the mavs defense gave up 95.9 ppg/ opponents FG% 44.31%.
In the 06-07 season the mavs defense gave up 92.8 ppg/ opponents FG% 44.70%
In the 05-06 season (the year they went to the finals) the mavs defense gave up 93.1 ppg/ opponents FG% 44.33%
This year with a new coach they are giving up 100.1 ppg/ opponents FG% is 45.48%.
This is amazing that Avery was able to get these guys to play defense for the simple fact that his bigs in Dirk and Dampier are horrible defenders.
They don’t clog the paint and they are both terrible in post defense and Pick and roll defense. Dampier however is better defensively then dirk….but that isn’t saying anything.
Avery often did this by hiding Dirk Defensively and overplaying passing lanes with guys like howard and Devin Harris.
Folks here in Dallas can hate on Avery but he actually made Dirk a better player by actually encouraging him to take the ball to the basket at times (something he still rarely does), having him atleast us a fadeway….but he is still sacred of the paint. And having him develope that swipe at the ball defense that he does ala Karl Malone.
But watch Dwil this team better not run ito one of these teams like Utah, LA, NO with a strong PG/wing and PF. They will pick and roll Dirk forever and kill them. Plus teams that like to run kills this mavs team.
The last 2 years againts NO and the Warriors, they even said that their intent was to attack Dirk and Dampier everytime on the court because they were the defensive liabilities. The defense actually played better with Diop and Bass on the floor then Dirk and Damp.
I think the only team that the mavs can beat in a series is the houston rockets. Since they don’t have a healthy T-Mac they only have 2 people on the team that can create their own shot in brooks and artest. Maybe you can throw Lowry in there also.
Dirk eats Scola hacking @ss up like he is a burger king whopper. But they can throw Battier or Artest at Dirk.
Yao will have his way with Damp………but they can get by guarding him one on one. Thing about Yao as great as he is he isn’t dominate. He won’t avg….25 and 15 against them for a whole series. Even though he actualy could.
The X-factor would be Josh Howard and if he is fully healed from his wrist and ankle injuries this season. He has missed a ton of games this season.
Not Allen’s fault that those Deee-troit also-rans didn’t want to play with him. Selfish bastards. A change was needed, but the always arrogant players and the newly over-his-head coach decided to entrust the same ball conrol offense to a 2nd year pg. Dumb. That’s why the “glorious” run-ups to the Eastern Conference Finals for the past several years is now over…