The Anatomy of a Fishy NBA Game: How the Fix Might Go Down

Let me make this clear right up front. I am not accusing referees Eric Lewis, Tom Washington, Phil Robinson of fixing Thursday night’s Utah Jazz-Denver Nuggets basketball game. I am, though, going to show how easy it is for referees to fix games.

Since this was a TNT-televised contest, I decided to choose this game to check the point spread and the over-under - total points scored – bets for the game. Denver was a 5.5 point favorite to win the game and the point total given by most Internet betting sites was 209.

Utah came into the game absolutely needing to win this game to keep pace with the Nuggets in the Northwest Division of the Western Conference. Because San Antonio gagged away a game at home against Oklahoma, the Spurs relinquished the number two seed in the West. Denver was now number two and Utah entered Thursday night’s game just 2.5 games behind the Nuggets. If Utah can catch Denver, with a win in their final season meeting, the Jazz would own the tie-breaker against the Nuggets.

The Nuggets average 106.7 points scored per game at home. Utah scores 101.8 points per game when they play on the road. The Jazz also allow 105 points on the road compared to 95 at home, hence the 209 point total.

What made this game interesting was that, because of its importance to both teams, it should have been played with playoff game intensity. Because of that supposed fact, the game should have been played in the 90s, well below the betting point total. Additionally, this season the Nuggets have limited opposing teams to 44% shooting down over three percent from last season.

Instead of a 95-90 outcome, or even a 102-96 final score, we got an improbably high 114-104 – Denver won – score.

Why was this final score improbably high? Two reasons. One, other than the middle portion of the third quarter, the game was played at a playoff pitch. The second reason though, is the most important. If investigators were to look into the possibility that NBA games are fixed, this would be their clue.

Utah shot only 36.6% from the field and Denver attempted only 75 shots, converting 46.7% of those shots, yet the teams combined for 218 points. The Jazz made only 34 baskets, six of those three-pointers and the Nuggets hit shots including ning treys.

This season NBA teams average 24.6 free throw attempts per game and averaging 19 made fouls shots. Utah and Denver though, are above the league averages. The Jazz are 20.3 for 26.6 from the line on average while the Nuggets are 21.3 for 27.2.

Thursday night the free throw lines looked like this: Utah – 30-40; Denver – 35-46. Even odder was the fact that in the first quarter, only 10 total free throws were attempted, four for Utah, six for Denver. And the score of that quarter? A playoff-like 24-21 Utah lead.

So how did we get from eight free throws attempted in one quarter to a ridiculous 86 attempts for the game?

In the second quarter there were 18 attempts (nine apiece). In quarter three the refs tightened things up even more. Utah attempted 13 foul shots and Denver attempted 15. And in the final 12 minutes Utah received 14 tries from the charity stripe and Denver had 16 tries from the line. Seventy-six free throw attempts is an inordinate number of trips to the line for any 48-minute NBA game.

But for three quarters?

Something seems fishy.

The game was hotly contested from the outset. Though Denver dragged through a shooting drought for much of the first 12 minutes, there was much bumping and grinding. Because only 10 total free throws were attempted, it appeared that the referee crew was going to allow physical play to rule the day. However, by the middle of the third quarter, players could be seen shaking their heads in disbelief at the inconsistency of the official’s calls. One moment the play under the galss was rough while touch fouls were called on the perimeter. A moment later, the opposite was the norm. As a result, the players never figured out the officials’ foul calling pattern and the game was a mess.

Had the teams attempted and made their season averages from the line, the final score would have been, 100-94, Denver, well under the 209 Las Vegas-projected point total. Interestingly, the game total was in doubt with the teams reaching the 209 mark with only 48 seconds remaining in the  fourth quarter.

Inconsistent officiating, an unusual number of play stoppages due to foul calls, and twice the number of free throws attempted in a game are the three easiest ways to shoot a game over its projected point total. Usually, any one of those happenstances are enough to achieve a higher point total than expected.

Thursday night, strangely, all three occurred. And because of the game’s pace and intensity, all had to be used if the game was to reach 210 points.

Again, I’m not saying something was odd about the officiating in the Utah-Denver game.

But…