March Madness 2009: The Theme for the Big Dance Is A Wide-Open Field

Villanova is up 10 on Louisville at halftime in the Big East Tournament. According to former Dukie and now ESPN analyst Jason Williams Rick Pitino must challenged his players at halftime to come out in the first five minutes of the second half and establish their dominance on the court.The Cardinal won by 14.

This is bullshit. It is also a fine example of how NCAA Men’s Basketball has deteriorated over the last 20 or so years.

While Pitino was challenging his players is anyone prepared to say that Wildcats’ head coach Jay Wright was not imploring to his team to come out and play even harder in the second half, knowing the Louisville players would come out playing with desperation in the game’s final 20 minutes.

And yet somehow the Nova players, admittedly lacking a dominant point guard (how many of them are there around the country?), played with much less intensity, discipline, and focus in the second half and got blown out.

I have maintained over time writing in SOMM, that today’s collegiate basketball players, while more athletically gifted overall, are far poorer players than their counterparts from the 1980s through the early to mid-1990s.

And the expertise of college referees has deteriorated right along with them.

Players have fallen into our society’s pattern of believing in style over substance rather than the fact that one’s style emanates from their cumulative body of work - their substance; that “image is reality.”

I feel this because watching a college game today is an exercise in frustration. I feel sorry for coaches as they agonize over a point guard’s inability to repeatedly execute two-handed bounce passes when necessary; when allegedly reliable players panic when double-teamed; that players are mostly unaware of the entire court as the play the game – only seeing bits and pieces of the whole – and consistently make improper decisions that cost their teams time, possessions, and ultimately, points.

And the wide open nature of this season’s NCAA Tourney will put lesser play on full display.

Meantime referees oversee a game in which they allow to look more like a choreographed brawl than a basketball game. It is obvious that many “top” college coaches around the country have adopted the philosophy that if their players foul constantly or at least push the boundary of fair play, that referees will ultimately cave into the feeling that should they call the game in strict accordance with the rules that no one will be left to play the game.

Sadly, these coaches are correct. If you watch a game coached by Tom Izzo, Mike Krzyzewski, Ben Howland, Tubby Smith, and Rick Pitino, to name a few, you can readily see this philosphy manifested. Izzo’s teams practice in shoulder pads and helmets for more than just toughness. Krzyzewski’s teams regularly push, pull, tug, elbow, clutch – and complain when they are caught. Howland’s teams have always played football-style, bump-and-run defense and bang you out of the way offense. Smith and Pitino’s teams are mirrors of their bulldog mentalities where toughness and unbending tough play is rewarded in minutes on the court and “finesse” is better left for another team.

Rather than set and keep a standard for an entire contest, college officials cave into the overly-rugged standard set by the coaches’ charges and all but the most egregious offenses are whistled – and depending on the player, not even assaults are called.

The lack of fundamental play and the sordid refereeing turn games into eyesores.

(A Las Vegas, gambling, conspiratorial aside… I looked at the point spreads offered by various Internet betting “sportsbooks,” took the means from the point spreads and figuratively “bet” on games. I was interested in any abnormal patterns in the outcomes games across the nation.

I found that on the first two days of conference tournaments around the country it was easy to not only pick winners just from the spreads given, but to play what are called “teasers.” Teasers involve betting on more than one team and adjusting the point spread in what you feel is your favor. For example, North Carolina is favored by nine points to win a game, Georgetown is favored by five points to win a game, and Florida is an eight point underdog in their game.

A bettor can feel that Carolina will certainly win their game, Gerogetown theirs, and Florida will either lose by few than eight points or win their game outright, but at the same time the bettor is not confident enough in any one game to make a single-game bet. So, to ensure a win, the bettor adjusts the point spread by, say, four points. The Tar Heels now four point favorites, the Hoyas are now a one point favorite and Florida is a 12 point underdog (points are added to the underdog’s spread).

With a little research I was able to pick six winners out of eight three-team teasers and won 11 of 15 single-game spread hypothetical bets.

As the week progressed, though, I began to see something odd. It appeared that point spreads were not representative of the teams playing the games. Favorites rarely won by more than the amount of the point spreads – not even when adjusting points in teasers.

Was it desperation fueled by the need to win by the underdogs that was causing this to occur? In some instances that appeared to be the case. On the whole, teams with NCAA bids wrapped up played less enthusiastically for the full 40 minutes than did their opponents. Top seeds in the Big 12 and the Big East were upset by lesser teams.

But in some games officiating was more than just spotty. The Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina ACC Tournament games was a prime example of a game where the Tar Heels played a desperate team that needed to defeat the #1-ranked Heels to have a chance to get into the Big Dance. For most of the game the officiating was fair – until it appeared that the Hokies might actually win.

Suddenly Carolina players could literally knock down Hokies under the basket without foul calls; this occurred twice in the game’s final moments. Tyler Hansbrough walked each time he received a pass on the block and committed at least three offensive fouls in the game’s final two minutes – no calls were made against him. Danny Green shoved Virginia Tech players too deep under the basket on two separate occasions without being whistled for a foul late in the game and snared important rebounds as a result.

People betting on Carolina lost, but Carolina, always a television darling, won.

Similar events took place throughout the Syracuse West Virginia Big East Semifinal game. After a six overtime marathon the night before, Syracuse looked sluggish in its zone and was consistently out of position under the boards (zone defenses make rebounding difficult for the most rested teams). Heavyweight center Arinze Onuaku looked to be particularly hurt by the length of the prior night’s game as he made little effort to gain position for rebounds, settling for leaping over Mountaineer’s backs for rebounds.

Yet he was called for only two fouls.

Officials made a series of scurrilous calls for various violations that allowed the Orange to carve out a seven point halftime lead. The final call of the first half was actually a missed call. Before Eric Devendorf shot and made his 60-foot shot to end the half the ball had to be taken out of bounds. However, that never happened. The Orange player who passed to Devendorf clearly had his entire foot on the baseline as he threw a pass to the Syracuse guard ——————- but the officials, even after surveying the replay, somehow never saw what was clear to anyone with eyes.

As the game wore on it was apparent that Syracuse players, on the whole, were flagging. But once again they were the recipient of referee’s largesse at key moments late in the game.

With the Cuse up 63-61 Jonny Flynn’s layin attempt was clearly blocked, but a foul was called. As the overtime began Devendorf ran over a Mountaineers defender in the lane and no foul was called. Onuaku’s conditioning worsened to the point where he was clearly laboring and made no effort to do anything other than grab, push and use forearms and elbows to jettison West Virginia players out of the lane.

The close to 300 pound Onuaku ended the game with only two fouls.

On the game’s final play, Devendorf clearly hit a West Virginia shooter as he attempted a three-point shot, knocking him down; no call was ever made. Even ESPN’s Jay Bilas said it was “unusual for a call not to be made” when contact was clearly made with the shooter.

Syracuse, as a heavy underdog, defeated bettors. Additionally the basketball program is another TV fave, as is their head coach, Jim Boeheim, so off they go to the Big East Finals, in large part due to the official’s inability to find the heart to blow their whistles against the tired Orange players (Though Jonny Flynn was portrayed as having an amazing game, six of his nine assists were obtained off passes to the wing  to open jump shooters and he was only 4-13 from the floor. Despite playing 67 minutes the evening before and every second of Friday’s game, Flynn miraculously committed no fouls.).

Finally, as if to add insult to injury, there was the Arizona State-USC  Pac 10 Championship game that played like a Trojans home game in Los Angeles. Down 15 at the half USC “came back” to upset ASU 66-63. In the first 20 minutes of the game only four fouls were called on the two teams, three on ASU, an unheard of one on USC.

However, in the second half USC was whistled for only seven fouls, while ASU was whistled for a ridiculous 13 fouls, which works out to a foul every 90 seconds. Sun Devils guard Ty Abbott somehow committed four fouls in 4:21, two of which were called 11 seconds apart.

The Trojans were outrebounded by the Sun Devils 22-18 and outshot from the floor (24-46 – 52.2%, to 26-49 – 53.1%; three-point range 5-16 to 9-19) but made 13-21 free throws to ASU’s 2-4.

It was as blatant a display of one-sided officiating as I have ever seen during a college basketball game. Without the aid of the refs the Trojans lose that game by at least the same 15 points they trailed at the half. With them they became the Pac 10 Champions and an unworthy entrant in the NCAA Tournament.

Then you have Duke-Florida State.

And I thought the USC game was the worst officiated game I’d ever seen. The stubborn refusal of the referees to call anything but the most obvious call on Duke – and I do mean anything but – was sickening.

The arrogance and sense of privilege and with which Duke players and coaches involve themselves in the game is the perfect microcosmic example of the White, male-dominated Western culture we “Others” must endure.

Thankfully, no Blue Devil’s games are telecasted from the “Duke-North” campus of ESPN, where two NCAA hoops commentators Jay Bilas and Jay Williams are former Duke players and unabashed Duke cheerleaders Mike Patrick and Dick Vitale act as the de facto play-by-play and color commentator for the Duke men’s basketball program.

But with the officials, if this is what we have to look forward to from referees during March Madness, we’re in for a long, extremely contentious three weeks.

Whoops! I almost forgot official Doug Sermon’s five second call on Tennessee after four quick seconds in the final 10 seconds of the SEC Championship. How does your arm move four times, a timeout is called and you call a five second violation? Did Sermon forget how many times his arm moved?

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Onto the games…

It looked for all the world that Bruce Pearl wasn’t too sad that his team lost, allowing Mississippi State to get into the Big Dance. When Pearl and MSU head coach Rick Stansbury embraced after the game, Pearl had something deep to say to Stansbury.  After the embrace the two shared a secretive and hearty laugh. Watching that little tete a tete I wondered how many other coaches from the Majors whose teams were assured of an NCAA berth let up just a little to give their conferences an extra team in the Tournament.

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The overall number one seeds are: Louisville (Midwest), Pittsburgh (East), North Carolina (South), and UConn (West). If the chalk holds, Louisville would meet UConn while Pitt and UNC would match up in the Final Four.

MIDWEST REGION

Key 1st round matchups:
Ohio State(#8) vs. Siena (#9). This #8-#9 game should be a monster. OSU never looked like a team that could do much more than be a one win and done team. In Siena the Buckeyes face a veteran team that could well make their appearance a brief one.

Utah (#5) vs. Arizona (#12). This is almost always a matchup that produces an upset. In 2009, if the Wildcats come motivated they will beat the Utes. ‘Zona is a much more talented team with plenty of scorers. All they have to do to win is play defense for 40 minutes, use their athleticism when the opportunity arises, and be patient in half court sets. We’ll see early in the game if the Wildcats are interested in making a run in the Tourney.

Boston College (#7) vs. Southern California (#10). USC was about as fractured as an NCAA team could be earlier this season. Somehow they found common ground and began to play together. The result was the Pac 10 Tournament crown. The Trojans, with their multiple defenses, can beat a scoring-challenged BC team.

West Virginia (#6) vs. Dayton (#11). If the Mountaineers are allowed to play Bob Higgins ball, that is rough and tough, the flyers don’t stand a chance in this game. But if the refs call a tight game WVU might be headed home after a 40 minute appearance.

Predictions: Siena, Arizona, and USC pull off 1st round upsets. If Zona wins, they will upset a young Wake Forest team in the second round. USC vs. Michigan State should be a monster round two game. Though many pundits feel Kansas can go far, I feel Bill Self cannot help his players overcome their youth and penchant for making mistakes in tight moments. And in college hoops the moments get no bigger than those in the NCAA Tournament. I can see the Jayhawks getting to the Sweet 16 but id they meet Michigan State it will be the end of the line for them. If there’s one thing most Tom Izzo’s teams do, it is play rough defense. I don’t feel that KU can withstand the constant pressure the Spartans will apply to them

Louisville plays defense too well to not make it through this section. Their only problem is consistent scoring. But if they turn teams over they can create easy buckets and deflate any opponent in the Midwest. Again, Arizona, if they can navigate their way to the Sweet 16 can be a tough out for Rick Pitino’s team. However, I expect the Ville to meet Tom Izzo’s Spartans in the Great Eight with Louisville escaping to the Final Four.

WEST REGION

Key 1st round matchups:
BYU (#8) vs. Texas A&M (#9). Eight-nine matchups are always intriguing and this one is no different. BYU likes to get up and down the floor while A&M is more controlled. Because of missions, Utah teams have the built in advantage of filling their rosters with more mature players. The Mountain West was a better conference than people think. and in a pinch, I’ll take Mark Turgeon over Matt Painter as my head coach any day. Look for the Cougars to win one for the number eights.

Washington (#4) vs. Mississippi State (#13). This #13 seed just so happened to win the SEC Conference Championship. The Huskies were a surprise Pac 10 regular season winner but fell short in their conference tourney. The key in this game will be which center can control the paint. The Huskies feature bruising Jon Brockman while the Bulldogs are fortunate to have the thin shot-blocking machine Jarvis Varnado patrolling the middle. MSU has better outside shooter than does Washington and they also shoot 3-pointers better than do the Huskies guards. Don’t be surprised if Rick Stansbury team pulls off the upset.

Cal (#7) vs. Maryland (#10). The Bears are as inconsistent as are the Terps. However, Mike Montgomery’s team has more talent than does Gary Williams’ squad and is more disciplined than is Maryland. Unless Greivis Vasquez can go off the Terps are going home early.

Marquette (#6) vs. Utah State (#11). When Dominic James went down with an ankle injury, Marquette’s shot at a Final four appearance went down with him. Not many people know about the WAC champs Aggies, but they will after this game. Utah State is tough, they shoot well and like other Utah teams, have mature minds and bodies on the court at all times. The Aggies are close to as athletic as are the Golden Eagles and because the game is being played In nearby Boise, Idaho, the Aggies will have what will amount to a home court advantage.  Watch out for an upset here.

Predictions: Look for Purdue to meet UConn in the Sweet 16 and play the Huskies tough for most of the game. In the end, though, UConn will eke out a win. Marquette will be tested by Utah State but if they hold on, they can bewilder Missouri with their three-guard offense and sneak out to meet Memphis. If nothing else Buzz Williams’ Golden Eagles are a tough-minded team. They proved that in the Big East tournament when they roared back from big deficit and came within seconds of upsetting Villanova.

In the end UConn and Memphis should meet in a heavyweight Regional Final. Memphis yearns to return to the Final Four while this group of Huskies has always managed to fall short of their goals. But before they get there the Sweet 16 game against Missouri will be a good one. I maintain that Mike Anderson is every bit as good a coach as is John Calipari – and the Tigers are athletic and smart. If any team has an opportunity to pull off two ground-shaking upsets, it is Missouri.

If Memphis gets by Missouri, the Tigers will come out of the West.

SOUTH REGION

Key 1st Round Matchups:
LSU (#8) vs. Butler (#9). The ranked Bulldogs were one of those team I felt got huing out just enough to lose to their in their conference tournament, allowing another team, in thei case Cleveland State, to get into the NCAA Tournament. For their efforts Butler gets LSU, a team they can beat. The Tigers are solid but the SEC was way down this season, so it’s a bit hard to get a grasp on how good the Tigers really are. This game will go down to the wire.

Illinois (#5) vs. Western Kentucky (#12). I’m not convinced that the Big ten was all that this season and I’m really not convinced that the Illini is worth a number five seed. But at the same time I don’t believe the Hilltoppers have as much talent as Illinois from the top to the bottom of their team. Illinois won only one game in their last five that away from home and that was their 10-point victory over Michigan in the Big 10 Tournament. Western Kentucky has an excellent chance of weinning this game becuase Illinois does not score enough points to go too far in the Big Dance, while Western Kentucky like to play an up-tempo game. don’t be surprised if the Hilltoppers pull of another #5 vs. #12 upset.

Arizona State (#6) vs. Temple (#11). Watch this game closely. The Sun Devils players looked absolutely stunned  in the waning moments of their Pac 10 championship game against USC. Whether they were in disbelief because of the way the second half was officiated or in shock that the Trojans didn’t roll over after falling behind 15 at halftime was difficult to discern. My guess is that it was a combination of both. However, I’m unsure ASU will fully get over that loss. Meantime Temple comes in on a high after winning the A-10 Conference Tournament. I think temple has the talent to take down the Sun Devils.

Predictions: Saturday afternoon I told a sportswriter that if Gonzaga could avoid Memphis or North Carolina I was going to pick them to go to the Final Four. The Zags meet UNC in the Sweet 16. The winner of this game will exit the South Region and go to the Final Four. Gonzaga matches up well against the Tar Heels, perhaps better than any other team in the tournament. While Ty Lawson is light years faster than Jeremy Pargo, he certainly is not as tough. Nor is he a better shooter, Matt Bouldin is better than any two or three on UNC’s team, Austin Daye has no counterpart on the Tar Heels, and Josh Heytfelt can bang just as hard as Tyler Hansbrough. The difference between the two teams is on the bench. Roy Williams is a better coach than Mark Few and in clutch moments I feel williams can draw up plays to get points where Few will fail. And that will be the difference between Gonzaga making that surprise run and falling just short of a miracle season.

EAST REGION

Key First Round Matchups:
Oklahoma State (#8) vs. Tennessee (#9). How you win your division and get to the finals of a major conference tournament and end up a number nine seed is a testament to how poor the SEC was this season. The Volunteers have yet to respond to head coach Bruce Pearl’s brand of motivation and play as if they can turn on the juice at any time when, in fact, they cannot. Conversely, by season’s end OK State was playing as good as any team in the country. Look for the Cowboys top hold up their higher seed.

UCLA (#6) vs. VCU (#12). Eric Maynor versus Darren Collison. This matchup will not only decide the game but it will decide the draft position of the two guards in the upcoming NBA Draft. Maynor is at the mid-major and has something to prove to Collison who is thought to be one of the top three point guards in the nation. If Maynor dominates this matchup, VCU will pull off the upset. If Collison hold up his end of the bargain, UCLA has enough firepower at other positions to come out a winner.

Predictions: Oklahoma State versus Pittsburgh will be a tougher game than most people think.

Florida State-Xavier will be a tough second round matchup for the Seminoles. Xavier is big and they can shoot. But do they have a point guard?

If Texas can get any point guard play, they have the inside player to punish the Blue Devils. If that happens, it will be up to the referees as to whether Duke escapes that game.

Watch out for Villanova. They can beat Duke or Texas, and they sure aren’t afraid of Pittsburgh.

A Big East team will make it out of this region and into the Final Four – unless Duke gets the Gold Medal head coach-winning treatment throughout the Regionals. If not, it’s going to be a battle between Nova and Pitt.

Final Four Predictions:

They really are too difficult to make. I will, though, say this: People continue to tell me that UNC is the team to beat if Ty Lawson is healthy. I do not believe it. Dean Smith never won as many championships as he should have and neither has Roy Williams; and both coaches have too many apologists for my taste.

That said, I feel Memphis is the most likely team to win the Big Dance but they have a tough, tough road just to make it to the Final Four. If Gonzaga can overcome their coach they are a Final Four team. Once there, they would meet Pittsburgh or Villanova – or even Duke.

Oklahoma has Blake and Taylor Griffin and unstable guard play. They are the shakiest of number two seeds and can easily be throttled by Syracuse’s zone defense and athletic backcourt. But if the Sooners backcourt gets its mojo back, they can give any team in their region fits, including North Carolina.

Michigan State is the second-shakiest number two seed. They have suffered through some injuries but have yet to show the overall consistency that tells me they are a serious threat to get to Detroit.

Kansas is, in my opinion, too young to advance too far. Yet, with their athletic ability and Bill Self as their coach, they are the most likely number three seed to go all the way. The same goes for number four seed Wake Forest.

This season’s Connecticut team has yet to play to its potential. But if they can get 15 points a game from Hasheem Thabeet and keep him out of foul trouble, they are nearly unbeatable. At the same time, a very disciplined, fairly athletic team with a couple of good outside shooters like Purdue, can easily frustrate and upset the Huskies.

And finally, the wildcard in all of this will be officiating. Many top teams like Pittsburgh, UConn, UNC, and Oklahoma, depend on their dominant big man to get them the tough points that open the way for their guards. However, one officiating crew with quick whistles and an attitude can ruin a game and cause a most unlikely upset.

It will be a very interesting three weeks.

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Congratulations to the Morgan State basketball team and Bears head coach Todd Bozeman. Morgan State won the MEAC Tournament and the uniteam is making its first appearance in the NCAA Men’s Tournament. The Bears, a #15 seed, will play #2 seeded Oklahoma at the Kansas City site on Thursday afternoon at 1 p.m. EST.