Foul Shot Friday: Your NBA 08-09 Dark Horse Is…
November 9, 2008 by MCBias
The NBA is not quite as upset-prone as the other two major professional sports leagues. That makes it even more rewarding when you find a dark horse. For the purpose of clarification, I’m going to call a “dark horse” any team that you think can make it at least to the Conference Finals who isn’t being projected there. Who might even sneak into the NBA Finals? For me, my #1 dark horse is the Phoenix Suns. See, the Suns were successful because they were running and gunning when every other team in the league (except for Dallas) was playing at a slower pace. Now, however, with so many other teams running more, it stands to reason that Phoenix’s style would be less of a surprise and advantage. Phoenix is presciently moving ahead of the curve once more by emphasizing more defense. Sure, it sounds crazy at first. But this team added a hugely valuable piece in Matt Barnes. He’s going to help them do a better job of resting and rotating their 2′s and 3′s so that they aren’t as leg-weary in May. In addition, less running may help the Suns be in better shape for the play-offs. Was it just me, or did they start to tire each year in the play-offs?
Oh, I know Shaq, Grant, and Steve are no longer the stars they once were. But for me, Amare Stoudamire is the catalyst. He finally has the hard-working big man he needs to complement his game. He’s 26, he’s finally completely healthy (nice goggles!), and he scored 25 points a game last season. He has an excellent supporting cast of shooters, drivers, and Shaq, who’s in his own category. Robin Lopez could also be helpful as an Anderson Varajeo-like hustle player and agitator. Finally, consider the frontcourt mismatches for the other teams. I seriously think Yao has no chance of making it through the season–his legs already seem dead, and it’s November! Are Bynum and Gasol ready to shut down Shaq and Amare? It’s close, but I think you still have to give the advantage to Phoenix. What about Okur and Boozer? Or Duncan and Oberto? I do like the Hornets’ chances because they match up well at the 1,4, and 5, but if the Suns can dodge the Hornets until the WCF and the Spurs keep playing so badly, I really like the Suns chances.
Oh ok, I’m going all in on this one; Suns to WCF. Feel free to come back and mock me in 6 months, heh. My Eastern Conference dark horse is the Orlando Magic. Now I know that Orlando has little talent at the guards, and that the guards are more important than ever in the NBA. But they just need one player to step forward, whether that’s Jameer, Michael, or even JJ, and they’ll be a powerful team. If they could even find a guard cast-off, someone like a Steve Blake or Smush Parker or Bonzi Wells, around the trade deadline they might be able to get somewhere. They don’t need that much from their guards.
However, I have to be honest with you; I don’t believe in Orlando as much as I do in Phoenix. The problem is that their competition matches them strength for strength. Detroit’s frontcourt may not be that good at scoring, but they can lock down Dwight or Rashard in any given game. And if one of them has a bad game, the Magic lose. Similarly, while Boston has had its struggles against Orlando, who guards Ray Allen? And Cleveland’s big men, although they are stiffs as individuals, turn into rebounding and defending stalwarts in Coach Brown’s system. I just don’t see it in the end, although a decent defender and penetrator at the point guard position could turn the tide.
What do you all think? And by the way, I’d love some feedback on what you want to see from this NBA season. I can do videocasts, I can do picture posts of athletes in casual settings, I can do stats, we can try those Live Chats again a few times…I’m quite honestly less interested in the medium than in the conversation itself.
i’m hoping for a piston’s title. there is nothing i’d rather see than ai and rasheed winning a title together.
Dear McBias,
The Suns?
BOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Sincerely,
The Purple & Gold Nation
When AI wins a title in Detroit do the 76ers get a banner as well? With all the hate spilling on 6ers blogs about how AI has dealt with being traded to Detroit lately, I would hope they get something for all that…
I’m with Brian re: the Pistons. Been an Alley-I fan since Wilder let him out of prison, and like I said elsewhere, Sheed is the only field negro in the NBA. Detroit is also a Black city and the Pistons now have a Black coach and Black GM (but still a lily-white old boy owner… oh well, nobody’s perfect). That’s about as dark as a dark horse can get, so I’ll just have to ignore the fact that Boney is a fan and go all in anyway…
I also repped the Suns right here at this very site a few weeks ago while nearly airbody else was slurpin on the Blazers, so I’m with you there, MC.
I like Houston, but Artest’s gonna flip as soon as he discovers that Tracy and Yao are both physically and mentally spent.
What else? Let’s see, I’ll also cheer for whoever Steph ends up playing for, even if it’s some team in Italy – speaking of which, I’m checking for that high school kid Jennings. He’s in Italy, right? Hope his effort to buck the NCAA plantation is successful.
I also like Derrick Rose and I’ll enjoy watching his game mature this season, but he’s stuck on a team with poor coaching, poor management, and petty ownership. I’ll like him better when free agency hits and he can sign with a winner. Ditto Kevin Durant.
The Atlanta Hawks are an interesting team. I like every player in their starting five, and right now they’re playing like they belong among the best in the East.
Here’s what I don’t like: any team coached by some fossilized retread “my way or the highway” old geezer-ass white man (funny how old Black coaches never achieve such a lofty mainstream status – indeed the phrase “old Black coaches,” in today’s NBA, seems to present a contradiction in terms, no?).
The list includes: Golden State (they’d be better off w/o Don Nelson), Charlotte (they’d be terrible w or w/o Larry Brown), Utah (Jerry Sloan, a redneck homophobe in a state full of redneck homophobes – no wonder he’s been there for umpteen years), OK City (how long must Durant’s development be thwarted by PJ Carlisimo?), LA Clippers (perennial losers are ripe for a perennial loser and hard head like Mike Dunleavy), New York (sigh…”It’s So Hard/To Say Goodbye…”), Denver (…I don’t even have a clever aphorism for this guy – simply stated, fuck George Karl), Dallas (Rick Carlisle isn’t exactly an old geezer, but he is certainly a thoughtless retread), Minnesota (see Dallas), Houston (Adelman seems like a nice guy, but nice guys finish last, right? Well not in the NBA where nice guys can manage to squeeze into the playoffs, get fired anyway, and then get rehired by another team, repeat ad naseum – and btw, this process works mostly for white coaches, rarely Blacks), Milwaukee (see Houston). And whoever hires Flip Murray will also make this list.
I also don’t like teams coached by young wunderkind white boys who’ve paid no dues and would not be coaching anywhere were it not for white privilege and the advantages wrought by the old boy network.
This list includes: New Jersey, Miami, Chicago, and Memphis.
Lastly, I’ll be curious to see what the mainstream has to say now that a guy like Doc Rivers has won a chip. Or a guy like Byron Scott who has coached not one but two teams up from the doldrums. Or Mo Cheeks. Remember, Doc couldn’t coach piss to a pot a couple seasons ago. But in the words of his star player, “What can you say now?”
Ooops! Mant to say “Flip Saunders,” not Flip Murray!
Sheed is a 6’11″ three point specialist.
My dark horse is the Pistons. Now, they may not seem like a dark horse… except for the fact that no NBA analyst in the entire world is giving them any respect. I’ve seen peoples opinions on the eastern conference, and people are picking the Celtics, Cavs, Raptors, and the Magic. But if you can find even ONE respected analyst picking the Pistons, it would be news to me.
But I’m going to go out on a limb, all by myself, and pick Detroit. I think they’ve made some good roster changes, and their young players are really impressive. I think they have the best bench in the league, and possibly the best starting 5 too. Once they develop some chemistry with Iverson, they are going to steamroll the eastern conference. Teams like Orlando won’t stand a chance. The Pistons are simply too good, too deep at all 5 positions, and too talented on both ends of the floor.
Last Poet: You have some interesting theories, too bad they’re blatently racist and completely wrong. You think Doc Rivers is a great coach now, because of one great season? What about his countless failures before that season? Do I need to remind you of his time with the Magic, when at one point he was actually starting Pat Garrity at center?
Regarding “old white guys”, sorry to tell you but they are usually the best coaches. Let’s start with the two best coaches EVER: Phil Jackson and Red Auerbach. Not to mention Larry Brown, who has more coaching talent than Doc Rivers could ever dream of. You bashed Rick Carlisle, but at least he will provide some discipline for his team. I don’t see you saying anything about his predecessor, Avery Johnson, who took over for quite possibly the most talented team in the league, and failed to get them over the hump. All he managed to do was lead Dallas to the wrong end of the biggest playoff upset in the history of the league… against an “old white guy coach” (Don Nelson).
TheLastPoet
It’s bigots like you who continue to promote and propogate racism in America. Your post more or less read as follows: “I love black people and hate white people.” You blindly assume that white people have no merit and get where they are soley because of their color, and that black people are more deserving of the same jobs. That’s all a load of racist bullshit, and you are the definition of a hypocrite. Before you start complaining about racism again I suggest that you deal with your own bigoted and racist mindset first.
c’mon guys, let’s not argue with LastPoet…
he picked the Pistons as his dark horse because they are the legitimate contenders…
Joe, Rick Carlisle is a great basketball mind. If the Mavs thought Avery couldn’t get them over the proverbial “hump” then why did they hire Carlisle? He’s good for maybe 50 wins, but nothing in the playoffs.
Joe and anon,
Umm, did I hurt your feelings?
Well, I might cry two tears in a bucket, fuck it…
Today I have nothing to say to the self-righteous morons of the world – consider yourselves lucky. (For the sake of clarity: Joe, you’re just a moron; and anon, you’re the self-righteous moron.)
Now go ‘way and leave me ‘lone before I allow you to upset me!
Hey last poet!!!
As for your comment on Miami’s coach, he isn’t white. He’s filipino and he paid his dues for 13 years. From the AV department in Miami to where he is now. Lastly, Its okay that you are complaining about racism while we move in and take all the jobs from you and make them good ol’ boys even richer.
You go Girl!!!
” Denver (…I don’t even have a clever aphorism for this guy – simply stated, fuck George Karl)”
haha i laughed so hard. great rant poet.
Pistons are my pick from the east. AI won’t be the difference maker though. Prince will be the man leading the charge this year.
I have no idea how MCBias picks the suns though…..
“Are Bynum and Gasol ready to shut down Shaq and Amare?”
ARE YOU KIDDING ME? LA’s front court is by far the best in the NBA. Shaq, although once a great player in this league, is to old to have the same dominance he once did.
So i’m going out on my own limb.
Pistons v Lakers in the Finals
Lakers have home court and take the series in 6.
Once again the pistons’ fans are disappointed.
SUNS??? you gotta be kidin me, ass
For the record, I don’t know how anyone can term the Pistons a dark horse, especially since they traded for Allen Iverson. If you want to go to the Finals, you have to go through Detroit, and it’s been that way for the last six years running. (And I say that as a Cavs fan!)
Hey, you have to give me some credit, I did pick a genuine dark horse, ha. The Suns are ranked about 6 or 7 in the West by most. But again, although I don’t like Amare as a person per se, his ceiling is ridiculously high.
TLP, eh, I dunno. I hear you on retreads, but young black coaches have been doing ok lately. It was nice to see Terry Porter get hired again–I always felt he deserved more time in Milwaukee. And he didn’t have to walk into Charlotte or Minnesota to start again, either–he got the Phoenix job! That right there restored a lot of my faith in the league’s fairness. Also, look at the hiring of Theus, a relative unknown.
Yeah, the NBA has race issues, but compared to any other league or even corporate America, I think the trend is favorable. Your ire is better aimed at football, in my humble opinion. The only NBA coaching race test still to be passed is if a team will take a little-known black assistant coach, who never played, and promote him to head coach, ala Lawrence Frank. Don’t think that has happened yet, but I could be wrong.
Of course it’s the Suns. With all the anti-hype about how awful they’re going to be this year, any playoff success they achieve will be considered surprising. Dark Horse is just another name for a good team which no one expects to be good but still won’t win a title.
Lots of coaches in the league are simply guys being hired to help develop certain aspects of teams. Do the Bobcats actually expect Brown to stay there for more than two years? No. But, his track record (minus NY fiasco) shows he gets the most out of young players and instills defense and discipline. Considering the Cats haven’t done shit…ever…they can live with this. I mean, it’s almost a guarantee they’ll be better off in two years with Brown.
Guys like Wittman, Skiles, PJ, Carlisle, etc…they’re like that. They’re rentals.
I don’t agree with your post, TLP. There are so many shitty black coaches in the NBA…Doc Rivers, Reggie Theus, Terry Porter, Avery Johnson, Dwayne Casey, etc. There are plenty of shitty coaches, but to say that white guys only get the job because they’re white is pretty stupid. Theus got his job simply because he went to New Mexico and has connections with the Maloofs. Now who’s the one living off connections?
Dark-horse team: Toronto. I love Sam Mitchell, love how he’s adjusted to playing a faster game with Calderon/Bosh, and love how O’Neal adds some depth. Calderon is a top five PG in the league. I don’t really see how Phoenix and Detroit are dark-horse teams, anyways.
no last poet, you didn’t hurt my feelings. You just revealed yourself to be an ignorant racist. The only thing you’re hurting is the way people percieve you. But let me save you the trouble of responding, of course you don’t care, ignorant idiots never do. You really have nothing to say because you’re so entrentched in your ideas and so determined to see bias even when it’s not there that you will not allow anyone to lift the wool you have chosen to pull over your eyes. Oh, why don’t you throw out another empty over-the-internet threat, maybe it’ll work next time.
Calderon is top 5 point guard?
hahaha
haaaaaaaahahahaha
Great points Mcbias I have to agree compared to other leagues the NBA actually gives black coaches somewhat of a fair chance.
TLP I hear you man on some of those issues.
Oh and Boney I want to smoke whatever jake is smoking Calderon a top 5 point guard…………..LOL!!!!!!!
Lets see in no order
1. Nash
2. Daron Williams
3. Kidd
4. Tony Parker
5. Chris Paul
6. Billups
7. Baron Davis
Ummmm there is just 7 off the top of my head and still no calderon.
Oh and how do the Raptors play faster with Calderon and Bosh. They actually played faster with TJ Ford and Bosh.
Origin:
It’s not that far fetched. Calderon is 2nd in the league in assists and he’s extremely efficient. High %’s and relatively low TO’s. Plus he’s picked up his scoring this year.
Baron Davis doesn’t deserve a spot anywhere near your list. He’s shooting 36% from the floor, 23.3% on threes, and his scoring is down under 16 ppg. Plus he’s an injury waiting to happen. But here’s the biggest reason: his team is currently 1-9, despite having some pretty decent talent. I don’t think Baron is even a top 10 PG right now.
Paul is clearly #1, can’t argue with that.
Nash is basically identical to Calderon this year, but Calderon has a decent edge in TO’s and assists. Overall his stats are a little better than Nash’s. I think he’s a very strong candidate as a top 5 PG especially when you consider that some of the others like Tony Parker and Deron Williams are currently injured.
Oh and Last Poet, you’re an idiot. That’s all.