What Cleveland Must Do to Reach the 2009 Finals
July 1, 2008
We at SOMM are continuing a series on how the 14 play-off teams that did not make it to the 2008 Finals can make it in 2009. (If time permits, we may also do lottery teams). If you are a dedicated fan of one of the teams, let me know and we may also feature your thoughts when we get to your team.
Amar from Cavalier Attitude at http://mvn.com/nba-cavaliers/ was gracious enough to share some thoughts on how the Cavaliers might improve this off-season:
A few months ago, somebody said that if defense and rebounding alone won NBA championships, then Cleveland would have had a parade in June of ‘07. They didn’t, so you can figure out what that means.
It also means that the Cavs have those two aspects of the game down. But anybody who watched the Cavs intense seven-game second-round series with the Celtics can vouch for the fact that Cleveland needs another scorer besides LeBron James to get buckets. It really doesn’t matter who that guy is, whether it be a big man in the post or a sharp-shooter on the perimeter. Somebody else has to help LB shoulder the load, and that somebody else isn’t on the roster - at least not yet.
The Cavs don’t have the cap room to pursue unrestricted free agents like Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, and Elton Brand. They do, however, have close to $30 million in expiring contracts for 2009, and sources have indicated that they already tried to swing one of those deals for Vince Carter on draft day. That’s a start. But that’s all it is. One-man shows never win it all, and the most points averaged in a season by a Cavalier not named LeBron in the “LeBron Era” were 15.6 by Zydrunas Ilgauskas in 2005-06. Z is now 33, so don’t bank on him doing it again. Even if he does, that total isn’t indicative of the kind of numbers that an All-Star sidekick next to LeBron would be expected to put up.
The Cavaliers must also learn how to get better on the road. At 18-23 away from the Q, Cleveland’s road mark was the second-worst amongst the top 13 teams in the league. The best teams had road marks well above .500. It’s a characteristic of all title contenders, and it’s also a characteristic that the Cavs haven’t picked up on yet. They were 20-21 away from the shores of Lake Erie in ‘06-07 and 19-22 in that department in ‘05-06. The Cavs aren’t winning a title until that number comes up to above .500.
Chemistry was also a big issue this past season that was a main reason the club regressed by five wins in ‘07-08. There were the contract holdouts of Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic that hurt the team far, far more than any casual observer of the situation can imagine. The three-team, 11-player trade in February that sent out five guys and brought in four brand new faces also shook up the team chemistry, and it took a while for the new players to get situated. Daniel Gibson and Delonte West are restricted free agents this summer, and it would be wise for GM Danny Ferry to get their situations taken care of ASAP since both are integral parts of the squad. A sequel to the Varejao/Pavlovic holdouts featuring Gibson and West would certainly put a serious dent in Cleveland’s 2009 championship hopes, and there are no two ways around that.
Despite all these changes and distractions, the Cavs were still a team that nobody wanted a part of in the postseason, and they proved to be the toughest out for the eventual world champion Boston Celtics. When you have a guy like LeBron James, who will unquestionably become the best player in the world by next season, the sky’s the limit. But that sky keeps dropping a little closer and closer the more the Cavs fail in their quest to maximize LeBron’s talents.
And it’s far more important now then ever before that the Cavs absolutely must cash in on a championship within the next two season - or else the long-term effects could be catatrophic.
Here is my opinion on how Cleveland can improve:
1. Stop trying to fix glaring problems with specialists. The trade that shipped out Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden brought us back players who are too one-dimensional for my liking. Yes, we did need more outside shooting, and we needed a bulky big man for interior defense. But if Wally can’t make shots, or Ben Wallace is too old to play defense, then what else do they bring to the table? We have Ben and Anderson as defenders who can’t score without dunking, and Zydrunas and Joe barely able to get a hand in someone’s face. There’s no balance there, and thus we have limited rotation choices. On the other hand, although Larry could be erratic and Drew could be a head case, they seemed to be a little more well-rounded.
2. Don’t mortgage the future for the sake of the present. To keep Vince Carter, the Raptors overpaid to keep Antonio Davis and Jerome Williams…and then lost Vince anyway. There’s a temptation to sign all the current players as a way of keeping Lebron in town. Resist! This franchise somehow only had 4 draft picks in the last four years before 2008 (http://www.nba.com/cavaliers/history/draft.html) because it was critical to get future stars like Jiri Welsch…oh wait. And yet, somehow the front office has made great picks in the second round–our last 4 2nd round picks are Boozer, Gibson, Kapano, and Ugboaga. So this franchise should be careful of shipping out picks as it gets rid of expiring contracts this year.
While I’m at it, please read Waiting for Next Year’s post on Lebron James: http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/?p=1463 and also Cavalier Attitude’s follow-up: http://mvn.com/nba-cavaliers/2008/07/01/where-retarded-media-combined-with-shallow-fans-happens . I also believe Lebron is not leaving unless the Cavs look completely hopeless in 2010. And if the Cavs are worse than the Nets in 2010, I’ll pack LBJ’s bags for him; he won’t owe us a thing at that point.
3. Clean up the crowded guard situation. At this point, here are the guards listed as such on the Cavs roster: Devin Brown, Daniel Gibson, Damon Jones, Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow, Billy Thomas, and Delonte West. Sasha seems to be regressing, and Damon/Eric can’t be trusted for major minutes anymore. However, the team can’t play both Gibson and West at the guard spots; they are too short.
I think the team should consider choosing between Gibson and West at some point. Both will have decent trade value on the open market. Yes, getting rid of a young asset who could blossom into a top guard is reckless…but remember, that netted us Larry Nance back in the day. (Ok, ok, and it also got us Danny Ferry for Ron Harper…perhaps historical comparisons are a mistake). I am not sure the Cavs can afford keeping both; perhaps they could package one of them with Varajeo in a trade?
Quick personal note: I am moving and have the accompanying work/life changes to deal with, so I’m taking a break from SOMM writing. I hope to be back in a few months once things settle down. In the meantime, feel free to e-mail me if necessary. If the other guys have time, they’ll keep up the series–if not, I can probably pick up again in the fall before the season starts.
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good article and sublinks:
As to point #2, I don’t know if Danny ferry has the luxury of time to make things right. waiting until the contracts expire in 2010 is very risky. I read the excellent and well-thought out link about “The Big Lie” of Lebron leaving in 2010 for New York. While th logic in it is pretty sound, nothing is logical about greed. Lebron is on record saying that he wants to be a billionaire and i believe him. NYC gives him the best chance to accomplish this. Even if the Nike endorsement remained the same better endorsement opportunities from other companies will come up.
I am the first guy to pooh-pooh the bullshit free-agency hysteria that ESPN NBA analysts are in love with righting about. It is smoke and mirrors and has no basis in any fact. however, i do believe that Lebron can be that very rare exception. …Danny ferry has about one more year — and not two — to surround Lebron with more talent. He better get to work.
Note: Ferry’s second round picks of Boozer, Kapono, and Gibson are quite an incredible achievement. Too bad that doesn’t translate into picking first rounders…
I read the same article about “the big lie”, and was surprised by how, but for a few people, no one called the author out on his fudging of the numbers. Mainly, how he compared a five-year deal (the most the Nets could offer) to the six-year deal (the Cavs deal), and summed it up as a $30 million dollar difference. Yeah, except that LeBron is pretty sure he’ll get max money after that five year deal expires. So the real difference is between what the Cavs can offer for the 5 years, and what the Nets can offer for 5 years (or, if you want to compare the six year offers, then the Nets could just guarantee LeBron a sixth year, under the table, for the max) is about $5 million. In other words, an endorsement deal.
LeBron can, and will, make more money in Brooklyn as the face of Rocafella Sports, than he would in Cleveland. The real big lie is the belief that LeBron has any reason to stay in Cleveland, or any reason to go to the Knicks. Neither are in play… only Brooklyn and Jay-Z are. And the failure to really comprehend the closeness of Jay-Z and LeBron is an example of how little the mainstream media (and their blogging counterparts) understand what is going on in the African-American culture….
I’ve read countless articles about LeBron going to the Knicks or the Nets when his contract is up. I think that could go either way. Either team that signs him, will be a contender because the Eastern Conference just isn’t that good. It’s just going to take some time for either one to win anything. The Cavs haven’t made any solid moves since LeBron got there. WORST move since ‘Bron going there, firing Paul Silas. I know Brown got them to the NBA finals, but that was more a case of the Pistons not playing up to potential because of their inept coach. Paul was definitely a better teacher than Mike Brown. And he seemed to get more out of the team as a whole rather than LeBron and occassionally getting something out of someone else.
Their best bet: Stop trading for players who are half-dead.
See, Kos, that’s where I differ on the subject. I believe anywhere LeBron goes will be a contender by default; having LeBron alone puts you, at worst, at 10-1 to win a title. So it doesn’t really matter if the Cavs, or the Nets, or even the Knicks, are more appealing. All will be contenders with LeBron there, and he’ll have a 5-year deal, so they’ll have at least that much time to change the roster to his liking.
The issue isn’t money, either. At least not NBA salary money. LeBron can get a deal that averages $22 million a year from the Cavs, or $21 million a year from the Nets. Big deal.
The issue isn’t whether he’s won a title or not at that point. If the Cavs have won a title, then LeBron might find the challenge of a new title in a new location more important; conversely, if the Cavs haven’t won a title, well, the challenge is whether to keep trying to win one in Cleveland, or try to win one in Brooklyn. In other words, there will always be motivation to win, if he seeks it.
So what is the issue? Simply, “What is best for Businessman LeBron”?
The answer, I would think, is to team up with the most successful (black) businessman he knows, Mr. Shawn Carter, in Brooklyn. And combine their business interests - sports + music = entertainment gurus. It just makes sense. Especially in Brooklyn.
SML,
To your point about people with similar interests coming together for purposes which exceed basketball, Elton Brand and Baron Davis are foreshadowing now what Kong and Jay might to in two years…
SML, I definitely agree that any team he goes to is an instant contender…
my prediction is that the Brooklyn arena is NOT built by 2010. Eminent domain legal battles have slown down the process and even if that is all over — I just don’t see it getting done in time… (BTW, the process of moving folk out of their homes is quite ugly)
do you see that as a factor? Do the Knicks have ANY chance in your mind?
Modi: I think that is where the unspoken option year in LeBron’s current contract becomes a huge factor. Namely, if the Brooklyn Nets aren’t ready by 2010, he might wait another year, collect his $17.7 million or whatever, and see if they are ready by 2011. If they aren’t in Brooklyn by then (and, really, if they aren’t, they will be in Sunnyside or somewhere else in NYC, because they ain’t going to be in NJ), then the Knicks will actually be enough below the cap to make a play for LeBron.
So yeah, either the Nets get into Brooklyn/Queens, or the Knicks actually become a legit player for LeBron’s services.
LP: Elton & Baron are going into the movie biz together, aren’t they? I’m surprised how few outlets are picking up on that story… Brand opted out of his contract, to take less money from the Clippers. So did Baron. Think they didn’t discuss this before-hand? It seems pretty much like a well-thought out plan from Davis & Brand and, shockingly, Baylor/Sterling. Whatever the case, the Clippers look good next year, though not contender good: Baron, Gordon, Thorton, Brand, Kaman. That should net them 40-45 wins, and the 8th or 7th seed in the West…
Personally… I don’t think Lebron will leave Cleveland. I am from Cleveland & I just don’t see Lebron leaving us. Lebron wants to accomplish what Michael Jordan did with only one team. Lebron wants to become a global icon. Jay-Z isn’t Lebron’s best friend, that’s his CELEBRITY friend, all of Lebron’s friendsare in Akron, OH. I think if Lebron stays with Cleveland, and Danny Ferry continues to put more GOOD players around him, like James Posey…. Cleveland will eventually get the championship they have been wanting. Lebron James & James Posey together as teammates?!? it’ll be like Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen together….. lol, Lebron please don’t leave us!! if Lebron does leave us, Lebron will become the most hated athlete in Cleveland history, if he stays, everybody would love him, everybody already does love Lebron in Cleveland.
My prediction for the 2009 NBA finals…..
Cleveland Cavaliers over Los Angeles Lakers in 7!
go cavs!
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