The NBA: Now With 30% Less Euros

With the NBA Draft occuring tonight, here are some last minute thoughts and questions on what’s going on:

What are the Blazers going to do with all them picks?

Really, the Blazers just went out and brought the 27th pick yesterday from the Hornets?

Sidenote:  What the hell is with the Hornets being so cheap?  They now have no picks this draft, and selling a late first round pick (hello Suns) is generally an iffy proposition.  Yes, you save money, and it is fiscally smart, plus it keeps your roster flexible.  I would, if I was an NBA GM, prefer a second-round pick to a late first rounder.  Less of a commitment in terms of length of contract and money (in fact, second-rounders aren’t even guaranteed, right?).  But selling picks for nothing, as opposed to getting a future pick or at least two of those Blazer second-rounders (again, nothing to lose)?!?  That seems cheap more than smart.  End sidenote.

Back to the Blazers:  What the hell are they going to do with 5 picks this year, plus a few next year (three?), plus Rudy Fernandez and Greg Oden joining the team this year?   Maybe they’ll go long-term, and use a bunch of picks on Euro players to stash overseas.  Still, if any team should be dealing tonight, it should be the Blazers.  You would hate to waste two or three picks (or more) on players that will just get cut after the summer league.

Where are the Euros?

Indeed, the rarely talked about story is the diminishing Euro presence in the NBA.  A couple of factors at play here.  One is the failure of a Euro superstar to emerge in the past seven drafts.  According to the NJ Ledger writer David D’Alessandro, drafting Euros is declining:

Consider: Europe hasn’t produced a single NBA star since early in the decade, when Tony Parker, Pau Gasol and Mehmet Okur came out of the 2001 draft. It has produced a large number of good but flawed players — Boris Diaw, Andris Biedrins, Nenad Krstic and Sasha Vujacic the best of them.

Indeed, Manu Ginobili, Dirk Nowitzki, et al… they are all from pre-2001.  This seems supported by the fact that only one foreigner is ranked in the top-15 this year: Danilo Gallinari.

Even more surprising: there is an overall declining trend in Euros, period:

The bigger picture reveals that in just half a decade — from 2000-01 to 2005-06 — the number of Europeans in the NBA doubled from 26 to 52. But in the past two seasons, that number has dropped significantly, with 40 Euros on opening day rosters for 2007-08.

And many of them are actually returning to Europe long before retirement age, including Jorge Garbajosa, Sarunas Jasikevicius, Ersan Ilyasova, Zoran Planinic and Victor Khryapa in the past two years alone.

Indeed.  Jorge Garbojosa accepted a buyout of his contract so he could go back to play in Spain.  This despite being on a Euro-friendly Raptors team that just gave another Spaniard – Jose Calderon – the reins.  Another Spaniard point guard (this time Juan Navarro) has left the Memphis Grizzlies to sign a $24 million deal with a Euro team.  And there are rumors floating that a Greek team has made a tempting offer to Carlos Delfino (not a Euro, technically, but an Argentine.  They have tripled from 2 to 6 in the timespan discussed; not sure if David D’Allesandro included them in as “Euros” or not), and even a rumor that Anthony Parker has attracted interest from overseas.

The Serious Tip has a post up about Brandon Jennings (having a tough time getting into a competitive college) possibly spending a season playing overseas in Euro before returning to America.

So two storylines to keep an eye on here: One, the emerging declining interest or reluctance to draft Euros high.   When was the last season two American-born white players (in this case, Kevin “Bill Walton” Love and Joe “Tom Chambers” Alexander) went before the first Euro was picked?  Could happen tonight.

Two, the Euro League are competitively stealing away talent from the NBA.  They have some money, and the larger and more profitable those clubs get, the more they can really become a problem for the NBA.  Right now losing some mid-level talent (all four players mentioned are starters or in the 8-man rotation for their respective teams), particularly talent that was originally from the Euro leagues, isn’t that bad.  But it does send a sign to other players that playing in Europe isn’t that bad.  After all, all four players chose to go back, even after getting into the NBA and making their mark.  It might make a few players think about Europe.  Especially if Brandon Jennings exploits Europe for one or two seasons.

Who is the big dog in Toronto?

Speaking of the Raptors (looking at losing three players to Europe!)… the big pre-draft day deal seems to be Jermaine O’Neal finally leaving Indianapolis (one year too late to be team with Kobe), heading to the Raptors in exchange for TJ Ford and spare parts.

This seems a great trade on the surface for the Raptors: they give up a surplus player, one who is only in the way of Jose Calderon’s emergence (his numbers last year as a starting point guard are astonishing), and fill a huge need: another big man to help Chris Bosh out, especially since Bosh seems more suited to play PF, not C.  O’Neal is injury-prone, but it’s not like TJ Ford is much better.  And the best part for the Raptors: O’Neal’s contract might be bigger than Ford’s, but is not longer.  The Raptors immediately become a top-4 team in the East, no?

Well, only if one question is answered during the season, and quickly: Who is the top dog (what is the pecking order)?  You might think this is a simple question to answer, but it’s going to be hard.  See, here you have three players, all coming from different places, with the same determination to prove themselves.  Bosh has been the top dog in the pecking order for a few years now.  O’Neal was the top dog in Indy for many years, and unlike Bosh, he’s played a big role on teams that have made it deep into the playoffs.  He may not defer to Bosh, and vice versa.  Oh, and then you add in Jose Calderon, who may not shot much, but is a high % shooter when he does, and who will control the offense and the ball.  Come clutch time, he might want to establish himself, too, as the go-to guy.

The worst case scenario for the Raptors: a situation where everyone gets good stats and numbers, but where the lack of a structure causes numerous breakdowns in the final minute, and a lack of “chemisty” not unlike what the Bucks have.  Is it Mo Williams night, or Michael Redd’s?  Or is Bogut or Yi?

The best case scenario:  Sam Mitchell quickly lays it out, puts some hierachy in place (they can always change, depending on how things go), and let’s everyone know their role.  O’Neal emerges as the top dog, with Bosh and Calderon and Bargnani all learning and accepting their roles.  The Raptors become a top-4 team next season, outgunning the Magic, only behind the big three in the East: Celtics (due for a letdown), Cavs and Pistons.

We’ll go more into depth next week, when we hopefully talk to a couple of Raptor bloggers.

Who is Gunnin For That #1 Spot?

I am seriously thinking of checking out this new documentary from that Beastie Boy (MCA/Adam Yauch) about the first annual Elite-24 high schooler game at Ruckers a few years back.  Check out the lineup: four guys going in the top-15 tonight: Michael Beasley (seen clowning around in the trailer), Kevin Love (seen talking about sneaker companies again), Jerryd Bayless (more on him in a bit), and Donta Greene.  Also, the aformentioned Brandon Jennings, and my favorite, Coney Island legend Lance Stevenson (and 2010 #1 pick), seen in the trailer schooling cats three years older than him.  Expect a review next week.

What are the Knicks going to do/the Brook Lopez factor?

Finally, let’s end with a Knick topic, since I am a Knick blogger at heart.  The Knicks are picking #6, with rumors swirling that they have a deal with the Grizzlies to get the #5 pick (for Malik Rose and David Lee, supposedly).  It seems unlikely to me that the Grizzlies like Lee that much, but if they do, let’s go for it.  I’ve left my thoughts on this over in the comments in Posting And Toasting’s recent posts on this very topic.  The bottom line is that I’ve always been an advocate of trading Lee while his value is at its highest, provide we get something good back for him.  The #5 pick seems good to me, since coupled with the #6 pick it gives the Knicks a chance to really rebuild.

The key for the Knicks tonight, regardless of whether they get the #5 pick or not, is to see what happens in the top-four.  Because the top four teams are very likely to pick from this five-man group: Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Bayless, and possibly Brook Lopez.  If Lopez does go in the top-four, the Knicks then have a good chance at Bayless (or, a longer shot, Mayo), since the rumor is the Grizzlies will take Kevin Love at #5 (provided no trade with the Knicks occurs, and I’m betting it won’t happen).

Knicks fans have to be hoping someone pulls the trigger on Lopez.  Because, realistically, here are your top-choices if you are the Knicks: OJ Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, then either Danilo or Russell Westbrook.  There are two other good options, but not at #6: Joe Alexander and DJ Augustin.  I wouldn’t be oppose to trading down for those guys, especially Augustin.  He might be a good fit for the Knicks, even if him and Nate Robinson could combine at times to form the smallest backcourt in NBA history!

If I’m home tonight (I will try), I will try to do something along the lines of a live posting of the NBA draft.