The NBA Finals: And the Winner Is…
June 5, 2008
By June 19 either the Los Angeles Lakers or the Boston Celtics will be handed the Larry O’Brien trophy. When this occurs the two teams will have combined to win exactly half of the NBA championships - 31 of 62 - since the league’s inception.
But the question is:
Which team will win number 31?
The “Big Three” equals one Kobe. Think about it. Los Angeles can game plan to stop Paul Pierce. Or Ray Allen. Or Kevin Garnett.
But they cannot stop all three. And if one of them gets off every game his efforts combined with what ever the other two give Boston will, points-wise, be equal to or surpass the output of Kobe Bryant. Then add rebounds and assists, blocks and they easily contribute more to their team that Bryant does his.
How-ev-a.
The Lakers have their own Big Three.
Who is going to stop Kobe Bryant, Lamar Odom, and Pau Gasol? Well, no one stops Kobe - no, Paul Pierce is not going to keep Bryant from - to borrow a U.S. Postal Service phrase - delivering to his appointed rounds. Odom is a matchup nightmare and dominates whomever he plays against. Gasol will more that likely be facing off against KG. Garnett is not as physical defender as were Carlos Boozer and Tim Duncan, so Pau will do his share of scoring.
Which Big Three has an advantage?…
I’ll say Lakers by a nose.
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The bench is the bench is the bench - except when its the Los Angeles bench - or is that Boston’s? The Lakers have a banger in Rony Turiaf and they have scorers galore in Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Jordan Farmar. But, then again Boston has bangers in Leon Powe and P. J. Brown and scorers such as Sam Cassell, Eddie House, and James Posey.
LA uses its reserves to maintain leads, grow leads, and make up deficits. The Celtics have enough veterans with rings - Cassell and Posey - to nullify whatever advantage the Lakers have. House and Posey are capable of lighting it up from 3-point range, while Cassell should be able to use his experience to ward off the younger Farmar. Powe and Brown will play Turiaf to a standstill.
Against popular opinion, I’m taking the Celtics bench over the Lakers bench.
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Pau?… Los Angeles lost both regular season games to the Cees. But that was before the Gasol for Kwame and a draft choice or two and a prayer trade. LA was 35-20 B.P. (Before Pau) and 34-8 after, including the playoffs.
Gasol brought flexibility to the Lakers. On offense he can’t post up[ pop out and hit elbow jumpers, and is another in a line of excellent Lakers passers. Defensively his length poses problems for opponents and he’s tougher than the average Euro big man. If he takes the ball to the rim instead of flicking up some of the soft shots he was against San Antonio, he could pose serious problems for Boston.
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Rondo vs. D-Fish ———- is a huge matchup. The talented, young Rajon grows with each playoff game, while Derek Fisher is the rock on which all Lakers, including Kobe, stand. Fortunately for Rondo, he has the Bog Three to lean on. But he still must be proficient in leading the Celtics for them to prosper.
Fisher, on the other hand, is what he is - and that is steady and clutch. Fisher will hit the dagger three, come up with the key steal, and just play a very good all-around game.
As much as I like Rondo’s progress, Fisher has the advantage here.
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And the NBA wants - who to win?
Boston, Boston, Boston. David Stern would absolutely love to hand the Cees the Larry O’Brien in the Fleet-Toronto Dominion Bank North-not the Garden Center. KG, Ray-Ray and Paul —— or Kobe? You know who is seen as the good guys. Kobe has Eagle and the whispers of another Vanessa, KG and Pierce have loyalty with Allen’s professionalism.
The Celtics have the ghost of Red Auerbach with his nine titles versus Phil Jackson with his nine titles. Hand the trophy to Phil and make him the new King of Coaches?
No way. It is not happening, not this year at least.
Oh yeah, and we have “Ubuntu” versus —— Kobe’s legacy. There is only one Michael Jordan and if Kobe puts on a consistent, game-by-game show for the ages, Jordan will be back-seated and, to a degree, replaced by his 21st century evolutionary newer, better model.
Mike and Red can’t go away yet - Ubuntu is the favorite and Jackson knows this. He has already commented on Auerbach, planting the seed in officials’ and the NBA league office officials minds that the ghost of Red is in play, and the league better make sure he gets out of play real quick, or there’s going to be some of that wry but very revealing of the NBA’s inner-workings Jackson comments in postgame press conferences - or maybe between quarters as he did in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs when he plainly blasted the officials to the tune of no fine from the league.
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So, with all that, who the hell is going to win this damn thing?
Tell you what. I have two outcomes. It Los Angeles gets one of the first two games in Boston, this thing is not coming back East. But if Boston wins both home games in the 2-3-2 home and away set up, Boston wins in six.
And that’s my story and I’m stickin’ to it.
Comments
34 Responses to “The NBA Finals: And the Winner Is…”
Got something to say?
Remember Dwil only one team has won all 3 games at home in the 2-3-2 format. Thats team was the Detroit pistrons versus the Lakers in 2004.
I got celts in 7. Celts lose first game. go to LA and win the 4 game.
Come back to boston down 3-2 and win the next 2 for the championship.
So celtics get their 3 road wins…..(because the story goes that no team has won a championship with less then 3 road wins).
I can see it now……the celts prevent Kobe from winning a ring without shaq. The Celts prevent Phil from winning his 10th ring surpassing Red. And the Paul, Kevin and Ray get that monkey off their back.
If the lakers had Bynum I would say they win in 6. He would be able to match up with garnett in the post. Cause Gasol or odom are gonna catch he11 trying to guard that brotha.
Also Dwil not only does the NBA want the celts to win I would argue most of the country wants the celts to win. Kobe is still in the top 5 of most hated blk athelets in America. People still won’t forget what happened in Colo……….”we can forgive the duke players but that boy Kobe is still guilty!!!!”
I am kinda torn between KG getting it and Kobe getting it. The ring that is. I never did like Boston from way back in ‘83. But there is good argument for them being a stronger, at least dfensively than LA.
I never did like Jackson, but I will give him his due, bitch can coach.
But Dwill man, Phil is right Gasol is a pussy. He’s got skills, but dudes soft like butter, and I think San Antonio and Utah showed the rest of the NBA how soft he is. Too bad KG’s game isn’t more like a Tim Duncan, in the paint all day…even for this series, cause Gasol would be straight punked.
At the end of the day, I guess I’ll sit on the fence. I just want to see a good series
origin-
Those are the points I too considered. We agree on everything….. I just wanted to provide a possible scenario where the Lakes could win (but I too thing the Cees are winning this thing - it’s a no Kobe thing)…..
sankofa-
It will be good… and Gasol is soft. I don’t really know how physical Garnett is on D. If KG doesn’t put body on him, Gasol can get comfortable and that’s when he’s dangerous. If Perkins guards him, it’ll be a whole different ball game and we’ll see soft Pau.
True Sankofa and Dwil. The thing is that Garnett is tough as nails but he is light in the @ss. I always felt that he needed to gain some weight. Especially in his legs.
This has always caused him to get tired when working the low post. He has the best low post moves for a big man besides Duncan. I mean on of the best low post players of all time was his mentor (mchale).
As far as affecting Gasol on defense. It will be his speed and length. Becuase Gasol probably weights more then him and has a better center of gravity.
Sankofa I too am torn between Kobe and Garnett. I wanted both to win. Thats why I wanted Garnett to play on the lakers.
I want Kobe to win to shut all the fools and bigots up. I want Garnett to win to shut the fools up. And so that the bigots can stop saying that doc is the worst coach in the league.
I’m gonna go with the Lakers, unless the NBA really wants the Celtics to win! Plus, I think this series will be tight - definely 2-2 after 4 games. Some drama to boost ratings, you know? Game 5 goes to home team Lakers. That leaves some drama to whether Boston can win two must-wins at home for the title. Final call: Lakers in 6, maybe 7.
Like you, Sankofa, after pulling for the Kobe/Lake Show, I suddenly found myself sitting on the fence, due to a compelling post by a commenter either here or at TSF who said:
1. despite the history of race hatred in Boston’s professional sports scene, the present is replete with a Celtics team that doesn’t play a single “hard-working” white boy who “thinks” the game in the top 8 or 9 - it’s all brothers who work as hard and understand the game of basketball better than anybody.
2. the head coach, too, is Black, but he catches mad heat from some of the national sports writers and a chip would go a long way toward earning him some respect.
3. finally, the Celts, though they lack post offense like so many teams in todays NBA, actually play the more “American” game than the Lakers who employ two “foreigners” in the starting lineup (with Kobe a figurative third “furriner”) and play two more off the bench (they also employ a “legacy” white boy off the bench, too).
This last comment is by no means intended to be xenophobic, but only to acknowledge a preference for a complete game of basketball which involves offensive and defensive post play, defensive intensity, dribble penetration, and the fast break - all without flopping or an over-reliance on a simplified three-point shot, as these latter characteristics are hallmarks of the FIBA game whereas the former characteristics are not.
With all that in mind, it becomes easier for a cat like me - a cat who remembers the “soft” racism used to elevate the Celtics of the 80s and who has heard tales of the “hard” racism practiced against the likes of Bill Russell, JoJo White, Sam Jones, etc - to embrace these “new” Celtics.
But then I remembered that no one seems to work harder or understand the game of basketball better than Bryant - and yet no one in the NBA (except for, maybe, Ron Artest) is more vilified.
And then I remembered that even though all the important Celtic players are Black, and the head coach is also Black, the people who get most of the credit for the Celtic turn around (outside of Garnett) are white: Ainge who made the moves, Thibodeaux, an assistant coach for God’s sake, who installed the new defense, and the “ghost of Red Auerbach” who has “overseen” the whole affair.
And then I remembered that two of LA’s “foreigners” are eastern Euro’s who’ve no doubt seen some hard times. A third is Black with all the requisite baggage that entails. Only the fourth, Spanish Pau, could be regarded as “privileged” in many ways.
And then I remembered that the LA coaching staff, outside of Jax, employs mad brothas: Jim Cleamons, Brain Shaw, Kareem, and - check this - Craig Hodges. Craig “I wore my Kente to the White House and popped shit to George H. Bush when the Bulls won the chip” Hodges! Yes, that Craig Hodges who was subsequently blacklisted from the NBA after he pulled that stunt.
I honestly don’t think I can root against a team that pays money to both Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Craig Muhfuckin Hodges!
So in conclusion of this most-unscientific analysis, I got Lakers in 7 - it’s going the distance because Stern and his corrupt officials are gonna milk the marketing and advertising dollars for all its worth. After Stern and the owners have made their paper, I think he could absolutely care less about who he has to hand the trophy too.
The Lakers in seven. And it will only go seven because of ratings and the feeling from some of the higher ups that it would be better for the league if the Celtics won (and Kobe, notice I didn’t say the Lakers, didn’t). I think Stern will be disappointed. Even though their trying to sell this series on nostalgia, I just can’t see the series getting as heated as some of those 80’s match ups. Totally different squads, and the fact that the rules have changed big time since then. The Celts just don’t have anyone that can match up to Kobe or Odom. Fisher has the edge on Rondo. The Lakers bench has been good, but I have to hand it to the Celts bench. They really stepped it up against the Pistons. Should be some good games. I just wish TNT could get the finals instead of ESPABC.
Yo thelastpoet you counting that brotha Turiaf as a euro right???
That kat is from france. So they have one black euro.
And I think some of yall are sleepin on Spanish Pau. Is he Dave Cowens, Wes Unseld, or Rick Mahorn reincarnated? Certainly not.
But he aint no Dirk, either. He’s “kinda” hard - for a Spanish cat. More importantly, he’s a legit 7 feet, and he’s looong. Lots of Euro’s, even the tall ones, are stubby, with short arms and compact torsos. Not Pau. He can actually do all the things KG can do and in the same manner in which KG does them. He may be less intense than KG - but, shid man, most people are!
Some of yall sayin that Kendrick Perkins’ll give Pau trouble. Forreal? Yall playin im too short, man. I understand that Perk is kinda nasty, but Pau got a lil more game than that. He’s got too much length and skill for Perk. Neither will Perk be able to do anything with the much faster Odom. I think Perk’s impact on this series will be minimal compared to Pau and the other frontcourt players.
Y’all really believe the league cheats for teams?
Interesting.
I have no prediction.
Yeah, O, I counted Turiaf…
kos, I feel you on the TNT broadcasts. I’d like to hear from EJ, Kenny, and Charles during pre-game and at half-time, and though he’s slippin a little, no one does NBA play-by-play better than Marv Albert. No one.
But I will not miss the overbearing Doug Collins or the inept Reggie Miller doing “commentary.”
I’m going with my the wisdom of my elders (my Dad) on this one and pick the Lakers. He thinks the celts are going to lose for a number of reason, not the least of which is the fact that they don’t have anybody on their team like Kobe who can close out a game. His main reasons are Rivers and Rajon Rondo. He doesn’t particularly care for Rivers as a coach and Rondo can’t shoot to save his life. Although, the Lakers definitely have had problems with speedy guards rolling through the lane and scoring, I don’t think Rondo is on the caliber of guys like Parker, Williams, Iverson and I think that L.A.’s guards will have an advantage, especially Farmar who was abused in the last three rounds by that group.
As much as I would love to see Garnett get a ring, well he should have brought his azz to Los Angeles. I believe Kobe will remind him of his decision every chance he gets.
Anyway you do make some good comments about both teams brotha lastpoet.
I’m going with the Lakers in 6. I understand the need to not come off as a Doc Rivers basher, but going up against Phil Jackson’s pedigree is a tough order, and I still don’t completely trust the Celtics on the road. Until someone beats the Lakers at home in the playoffs, I have to give them that.
I think the series really depends on whether Pau or KG is the first to take a “to the rim” attitude in the post rather than throwing up short fall-aways.
Put me down for LA in 6.
LA’s fresh and I think they’ll take the first game in Beanerville. They know their roles and have made serious comebacks against the defending champs. How come no one is making a big deal of how irrelevant they made the Spurs look? Yes, it was a tough series…but it was also hella short.
This Finals better be great cuz I’m geeked.
[…] I think Kobe will be chasing around Ray Allen, so the Celtics have a decided advantage there. The other question I have is: will Rajon Rondo completely crap the bed in the spotlight? Boston better hope not. Ray Allen is also going to be big here. He needs to knock down shots […]
13 - 19 - 5 and 4 ain’t soft. That’s Pau’s stat line from the Spurs final game. Lakers size and mobility and passing ability should the Celtics more that they can handle. With Doc’s ability to manage in game and game to game adjustments, I’ll have to go with this year’s version of the Lakers.
At the end of day, I have to homer out and say Lakers in 6. I’m not sure how much I trust this Celtics team in the clutch or Rivers (hate to knock the brother, but a 7 game series against the Hawks?).
But, at the end of the day, the tipping point for me is the Lakers beating the Spurs in 5. Before anyone pipes up about the calls, please remember that Fisher’s shot clearly hit the rim in Game 4 and that final play should never have even happened. Beyond that, it’s not just that they won, but how they won. They took that series from the defending champs with Duncan playing a great series. Manu was hobbled, but Lamar and Gasol were both pretty streaky in that series. I lost count of how many easy lay-ins the Gasol blew. I have never seen Kobe go to the free throw line so few times. Yet, the team still found a way. With a bit of Zen, some role players stepping up and a whole lot of Kobe in the clutch, this team is in the Finals.
I look at the Celtics and there is really little doubt that they are the better team. 3 true superstars. Great defense. An underrated bench (when Doc uses a solid rotation).
But then I just wonder what they will do to Kobe that Bruce Bowen couldn’t do? What will they do to Gasol that Camby, Booser, and Duncan didn’t do?
What will they do to Fisher that Iverson, Williams, and Parker didn’t do?
The Lakers have prevailed against some pretty damn impressive teams in pretty damn impressive fashion. I, like Dwil, think both Phil and Kobe realize how much they can cement their legacies with this series. A part of me is quietly rooting for KG because I’ve always been a fan of his, but the other part of me sees him shrinking in the clutch while Kobe takes it to the next level. I think Paul can actually go head to head with Kobe for a game or two and get a couple for the Celtics, but I’m just not seeing this team beating the Lakers 4 times unless it goes to 7. I think the Lakers know that too and will get this thing done in 6 extremely competitive games.
shon-
See that’s on thing that looks like it’s in the Lakers’ favor - Pierce on Kobe. If Edward Scissorhands can’t stop him, who on the Cees will? Now, I have a feeling that the Cees will “team defense” him. Then the question is, can the Celtics play enough disciplined rotation defense as they pass Kobe off from one player to another. The Celtics have looked good doing this all season, but they haven’t faced the Kobe of now. But they have the defense to make life a bit difficult for him - and if they rotate well enough to shut down passing lanes when he drives, it will mean trouble for LA.
Dwil - I’ve been thinking about that too. If, and sometimes that’s a pretty big if, the Lakers continue moving within the triangle, I think it will be hard to stop Kobe from finding someone open. Even still, I’m not sure if the Celtics defense can play at that level and shut down the Lakers offense enough times to win the series.
Also, I just can’t get over the fact that the Celtics have struggled in the playoffs with a better team and an easier road to the Finals. I can’t look past the talent on the team and count them out, but I still have to pick the Lakers.
I swear Dwil this season for the celtics is like 1986 with a little touch of 1984.
Like in 86 the celts played the hawks, pistons and MJ (except this years celts play the new 21st century nike made MJ/ lebron).
But like 1984 they met and beat the lakers.
Its like the 80’s all over again. Except Michael Jackson is in some foreign country and looks like an old white lady.
Not to steal the post but hold on you guys read this.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/060608dnmetjacobs.187985b.html
Now let me guess he did this to himself just like the DC Madam!!
Yeah whatever.
First of all, I don’t think Pierce will be the primary defender on Kobe. Probably Ray Allen. Second, Perkins will guard Gasol most of the time, not Garnett. Nobody’s going to stop Bryant, but the key is to keep the others under control. Big question is whether or not Perkins is allowed to be physical with Gasol - if he picks up cheap fouls, it will get ugly fast. Also, Rondo has to outplay Fisher. And DWil, it’s the TD Banknorth Garden. They’re a canadian bank that had the decency to put the “Garden” back in the name:)
Shon says “But then I just wonder what they will do to Kobe that Bruce Bowen couldn’t do? What will they do to Gasol that Camby, Booser, and Duncan didn’t do?
What will they do to Fisher that Iverson, Williams, and Parker didn’t do?”
First Shon, I agree with you about Rivers - he’s the biggest X factor of all. But in regards to your above words, I think that James Posey is going to be guarding Kobe a lot, and he’s a better defender than Bowen at this stage of their careers. Second, the Celts team defense is superior. As far as the guards are concerned, none of the above play defense as well as Rondo - certainly not Iverson or Parker. And I think Rajon’s D is better than Williams as well.
Celtics are overrated, in my opinion. They had a hard time with the Hawks and the Cavaliers. They beat the Pistons but Detroit never really had much trouble scoring on them when they ran their offense correctly. Now they face the team with the arguably the best player and arguably the best coach. With top-notch supporting talent. If Kobe doesn’t try to be a hero and plays within the triangle LA will snap this one up.
Like has been mentioned the Celtics have few good individual defenders but play good defense as a unit. So I’m guessing their plan will be to try to lure Kobe into shooting 30-40 shots a game, making 10 and kill his team. Now, Kobe by this point should understand this and play normal triangle offense and resist the urge. But who knows, with the Finals spotlight on him again, the lure of greatness, the comparisons to MJ, the Celtics will definitely being playing all the mind games they can both on the court and off to get him to try to go one-on-one every time down the floor. But Phil Jackson is the best coach in the game and will be wise to this tactic as well.
mark - I think Posey is good, but not as effective as Bowen. That’s at least partially because I can’t see the refs letting him get away with as much as Bowen does.
This also ties in to your earlier comment about Perkins. I’m really wondering how physical the refs are going to let this series be. With the huge ratings and interest I think this series is about to generate, I have a hard time seeing the NBA wanting to see ugly ball out there. Warm up the conspiracy theorists, but that just might be advantage Lakers as well.
I definitely agree that the Celts team defense is better. At the same time, I think the Lakers defense is a bit underrated. I also think we have an x-factor that has been overlooked in Trevor Ariza (if Phil let’s him off the bench). I don’t think Phil is going to have much a choice and will have to put Ariza in if Kobe is guarding Allen. If we can slow down Pierce without putting Kobe on him that really helps us out. I also don’t underestimate the abilities of the Triangle and the Zenmaster to figure out same way to get the offense flowing against the Celtics defense.
I think Rondo has a great future in this league, but I just don’t see him being able to shut down a guy like Fish. He’s just too experienced. He’ll find a way to get his 9-12 points. At the same time, Doc could always give him the early hook and put Sam I Am in the game.
Shon,
If Doc puts Sam in the game, then the Lakers win easily. He has been horrible, just awful. I’d much rather see Eddie House, and against the Lakers, I think we will. I’ll be surprised if Ariza plays. And you’re right about Pierce - I just don’t see who they have that can do it, other than Kobe.
Motown, the Celts actually have many good individual defenders - Perkins is quite good, as are Garnett, Pierce and Rondo. Posey and Brown off the bench are good. So combined with the committment to team defense, I feel pretty good about that end of things. It’s whether or not the Celts can maintain the ball movement on offense they had throughout the season that will determine how they do, imo.
Honestly, this series won’t even be close. Lakers in 5.
Anyone who thinks Kobe is gonna be denied is crazy Anyone who thinks Phil over Doc isn’t a HUGE advantage hasn’t watched the playoffs. Anyone who thinks that the Celts can score enough to make this series interesting is in for a rude awakening.
The voice of objectivity - my friend Kev:)
KevDog is always so vague and ambiguous with his picks….
Guess I am crazy Kevdog…..and when the celts win I’m gonna pick up that crazy check from my boy after I win this finals bet.
Then my crazy @ss gonna spend that crazy money…..LOL!!!!!