David Stern Saves John Paxson’s Job; No Fix, Knicks Picks Sixth
May 21, 2008
Here’s what last night’s NBA Lottery Drawing means:
1. John Paxson will survive to mess up the Bulls once again.
Let me start from the beginning, at the top of the list, knowhatI’mean?
What this means for the Bulls: Simply, Michael Beasley.
Forget all that “Derrick Rose is from Chicago” stuff. The Bulls have a point guard. Captain Kirk Hinrich has proven that, when surrounded by talent and a system that allows him to do what he does well (defense, three point shooting when open) he can lead the Bulls to 50 wins. Why throw him away, for a talented, yet unproven, point guard? Not when the most talented player in the draft is Beasley. Beasley also happens to be what the Bulls have been looking for years now: a low-post threat. Think the Bulls aren’t the luckiest franchise in NBA history? First they get Jordan with the third pick, then they beat the odds (1.7%) yesterday to land the top pick in the draft, who just happens to fill their most crucial need.
If they pick anyone other than Beasley, not only does Paxson need to get fired right away, but you can beat on Beasley using the snub as motivation, and dropping 30 points on the Bulls everytime the Heat play them.
So here’s one you can beat on: Beasley is a Bull.
2. Miami Heat - we told ya.
Yep, we said way back in February, when the Shaq deal went down, that Pat Riley was a genius. He still is. Man, I miss old greasy hair Riles. Peep the nucleus of the 2008 Heat: Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Udonis Haslem.
Now all they have to do is get under the cap just enough to offer Elton Brand a free agent deal.
How about this trade: Jared Jeffries (6 million) + Fred Jones expiring contract (3.3 million) for Mark Blount (6.73M) and Smush Parker (2.4M)? The deal clears $3.3 million off the cap for the Heat to offer free agents this summer, bringing the Heat to $49 million, or $10.5 million under the cap.
Their cap allocation: $17.1M for Shawn Marion, $14.4M for Dwayne, $6.575M for Haslem, $4.176M for Marcus Banks, $1.27M for Daequan Cook, and now $6M for Jeffries (who is more useful to the 2008 Heat than either Banks or Blount). That’s $10 million under the cap, enough to maybe eek out a deal for Brand (with $1 million increases every season).
Of course, there are other teams the Heat could make a similar deal with, to clear enough space (maybe Banks, Blount, and Parker all go, plus even Haslem) to offer Brand a decent contract.
Doubtful? Fine. How about instead of Brand, a next-tier forward, like… Josh Smith?
Get ready for the high-flying, running Heat next season.
3. What will the Knicks do?
Several options, in order of preference:
A. Draft OJ Mayo if he falls that far. Can he fall that far? We know that the Grizzlies pick 5th, ahead of the Knicks. They are loaded with points. They will be looking at anyone but Mayo. The question is what happens at #3 and #4? Will the Wolves or Sonics draft a point?
The Wolves seem less likely, since they still have a couple of points that are decent (Rashard McCants, Sebastian Telfair). If anyone is picking Eric Gordon, it’s the Wolves, to load up with Al Jefferson.
The Sonics? Not so easy. They have Durant (SG/SF), and little else. If anyone could benefit from a point guard upgrade, it’s the Sonics. However, there is the possibility that they could get scared off by the “reputation” of OJ Mayo, particularly since they are in the process of moving the team to Oklahoma City, and want to make sure they have a pretty face on the franchise (hence, all-around guys like Durant and Jeff Green). They might go conservative, and take a Brooks Lopez here. If so, then, yes, the Knicks might get a break, and have Mayo fall to them.
Folks, that would be a good thing. I know there are plenty of people who are turned off by the negative press that has hounded Mayo. Remember that Mayo is the third best prospect in this draft, and fills an urgent need. Value is value.
B. If Mayo is not available, the plan shifts a bit. The new plan might be maybe trade down, and try to get Danilo or DJ Augustin at a later point (like #8 or #9).
The next picks are: Clippers (#7), Milwaukee (#8), Charlotte (#9), and the Nets (#10).
The Nets and Knicks could work out a deal: how about Richard Jefferson ($12.2) + #10 pick for Zach Randolph ($13.33) + #6 pick? The Nets can throw in cap fodder to balance out the trade. Jefferson and Randolph both have long contracts that run until the end of the 2011 season; for the Knicks, this wouldn’t be a great deal, in terms of getting under the salary cap by 2010 (though it will save them around $3 million in 2010). However, they do get a player who fits one big need - a quality starting SF. And Randolph is just a bad fit for the Knicks roster.
On the Nets side, they have too much money invested in their wing players (Vince Carter, Devin Harris and Jefferson are signed for big money through 2011 and beyond). Randolph gives the team balance, plus the defense-oriented, shot-blocking Sean Williams is a good center for Randolph to be paired up with in the frontcourt.
Why would the Nets care to move up 6 places? Perhaps if there is a player they really have their eye on, like a Danilo Gallinari (who can instantly replace Jefferson at 1/10th the cost). For the Knicks, the hope would then be that DJ Augustin is available; considering that Rose, OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayless are the three point guards who would probably go before Augustin, and the only teams definitely looking for points before the 10-spot are the Heat, possibly the Sonics, and the Clippers… that might work out beautifully for the Knicks (depending on other trades, of course).
C. Stay put, and take Danilo or Bayless, depending on who works out better and which one fills the greater need.
My guess: The Knicks roll the dice with Marbury for a year. No harm in trying it. If he doesn’t work out, then the Knicks can try to draft a point with their top-5 pick next season. If so, then the Knicks will need to address the SF situation more; that would mean they might lean towards Danilo. Conversely, they could go and try to fill their need via a trade: one option is Crawford for TJ Ford.
Another option, though, might be this: the Pistons, under Joe Dumars, have been the smartest team in cap management for a long time now. They are the ideal standard in the NBA. The Pistons have been the best team in the Eastern Conference for 4 years running now, and while doing it have also found time to rebuild the team subtly. Gone is Ben Wallace, eventually replaced by Jason Maxiell (with Webber and McDyess holding it down in the meanwhile). There is no urgency on this issue for the Pistons, but at some point Billups is going to have to get traded - he’s contract runs until 2012, and Rodney Stuckey might prove by then that he is capable of running the point for the Pistons.
Though he was very impressive in knockign the Magic out of the playoffs last round, he hasn’t proven it yet. However, at the same time, there is enough playoff left for Stuckey to make a strong case, not unlike a backup QB trying to seize the opportunity to take the job from the incumbent. If Stuckey has a big series against the Celtics, and helps the Pistons beat Boston… Billups days in Detroit will start counting down. Not immediately, in all likelihood.
But maybe a year down the line? Maybe midseason next year, if the Pistons and/or Billups start off slow? Malik Rose’s expiring contract, plus a future pick, or some young talent (bye-bye David Lee) might get the Pistons to pry Billups loose. Joe Dumars is too savvy to not know when to sell a declining asset (see Ben Wallace). And he’s going to do it before Billups gets too devalued. Perhaps it might happen next year around the trading deadline.
This is one more reason the Knicks might want to pass up on jumping at a second-tier point guard, and instead work on fixing their SF situation first….
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7 Responses to “David Stern Saves John Paxson’s Job; No Fix, Knicks Picks Sixth”
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My Good Man, I am a defintely a CoSignor on this thread of thought.
One Love!
Keep it CRACKIN & POPPIN
I think Billups’ time in Detroit is done, and I’ve been justifiably catching heat for it. But his poor performance last year in the Cleveland series signaled the end of his time as an All-Star point guard. He still passes well, but his scoring inside the paint is gone.
@ Cooley High: Glad you approve! Hope you are doing well.
@ MC Bias: Yeah, and Joe Dumars is no fool. He’s the best exec in the NBA (he’s what Rod Thorn’s repuation is), and so you can bet he’ll move Billups within 13 months of today, because that’s the right time to sell him. Even if it’s just a giveaway, for salary cap relief….
I agree completely with your assessment of who the Bulls should pick. But, I was also on the Lamarcus Aldridge bandwagon before it picked up steam and the Bulls passed on his for Tyrus Thomas.
So, the Bulls have been known to do dumb shit.
Hey cooley, what’s up!
– definitely SML, gotta go with Beasley
– nice thought on RJ for Zach… I could see that one working…
– if Mayo is not around, isiah is out in Europe scouting Danilo right now… that will probably be a big factor
– Yes, roll dice with marbury… nothing to lose
– Don’t get the Chauncy talk… if a team isn’t on the cusp of a championship I don’t see his value…
If Paxson doesn’t draft Rose, there will literally be riots in the streets here in Chicago.
Also, Hinrich’s star in this city is dim. Very dim. He didn’t respond well at all last year to some of the criticism he received. And if it’s perceived by fans that he’s the reason the Bulls didn’t draft Rose, he will catch H-E-Double-Hockey-Sticks that will crush his already fragile and fractured ‘confidence’.
SML,
You know you my man fitty grand fo sho.
But I got two words for your description of the “savvy” Joe Dumars. C’mon sun, you know exactly what the two words are:
Darko Milicic.